Research On Modeling And Analysis Method Of Development Scheme Of Weapon Equipment System-of-Systems Based On Multilayer Temporal Network

In recent years,the international situation has been turbulent and changing,and the mode of war has been changing with the development of science and technology.If we want to seize the initiative in the future war,we must grasp the changes of operations and establish an equipment development plan which can meet the requirements of the future.The focus of traditional equipment development planning is to plan the time and contents of equipment development.However,in the process of implementing the equipment development planning,there are still several problems to be worthy of attention: the equipment development planning should consider how to initiated a project for equipment development,the research and develop strength of equipment development unit,time schedule and other factors.Equipment development planning also need to consider the problem of technological breakthrough to avoid being enslaved to key technologies.Based on the above considerations,in the category of equipment development planning,this paper further puts forward the concept of development scheme of weapon equipment system-of-systems: development scheme of weapon equipment system-of-systems is to plan the time,content and level of equipment development,and at the same time,plan the content,time and funds of the projects and technologies for equipment development according to the strategic objectives and the possible threats faced by our army in the future.This paper mainly studies the modeling and analysis of development scheme of weapon equipment system-of-systems based on multi-layer sequential network.This paper mainly completes the work in the following aspects:(1)Reviews of the research framework.Through the analysis of concepts of system-of-systems,weapon equipment system-of-systems and development scheme of weapon equipment system-of-systems,the research emphases and ideas in this paper are put forward.According to the characteristics of the development scheme of weapon equipment system-of-systems,the research framework of this paper is determined.(2)Modeling of development scheme of weapon equipment system-of-systems based on multi-layer temporal network.Through the analysis of the development scheme of weapon equipment system-of-systems,this paper reviews the types and relations of elements.The scheme is modeled by multi-layer time temporal network to describe the interaction between the relationship of various elements of the scheme and time dimension.Based on the communication and command relationship between equipment,the concept of equipment function chain and the index of equipment function chain is put forward,which lays the foundation for the later analysis.(3)Multi-layer temporal network model based on development scheme of weapon equipment system-of-systems.This paper analyzes the development scheme of weapon equipment system from two angles of satisfaction and risk.In the aspect of satisfaction analysis,the equipment function chain index is used to evaluate the capability level of the scheme,and then the task satisfaction evaluation is given based on the method of evidence reasoning.In terms of risk analysis,firstly,the hierarchical holographic modeling(HMM)of risk identification is used to determine the risk source and two types of risks of the scheme,including capability risk and mission risk;Then,based on the idea of percolation model,the risk propagation process and calculation method are given;Finally,the concept of resilience is introduced,and the vulnerability process,resilience recovery process and capability risk are analyzed.(4)The application of the method proposed in this paper and practical Example.The validity and rationality of the method are verified.