Evaluation Of Navigation Environment Of Arctic Northeast Passage Based On Extension Cloud Model

Global climate change has caused a massive loss of sea ice in the Arctic,making much of the Arctic navigable in summer.Predictions suggest the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer as early as 2037.The opening of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic will inevitably change the shipping pattern between Asia,Europe and North America and greatly reduce the navigation distance between China and countries in North America and Europe.It will not only effectively shorten the navigation time and reduce shipping costs,but also reduce China’s dependence on the Malacca Strait-Suez Canal route,which is of self-evident importance.However,the navigation environment of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic is very complicated and changeable,with long winter,cold weather and frequent snowstorms.Summer is short and cloudy and foggy,visibility is very low,and the severe hydrometeorological environment leads to frequent Marine traffic accidents.Therefore,it is of practical significance to evaluate and study the navigation environment of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic and find out the factors that affect the navigation environment.This thesis summarizes the basic situation of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic,summarizes the Arctic passage,waterway safety evaluation methods and the application of extension cloud model research status,in order to determine the shortcomings of the method of combining extension method and cloud model to evaluate the navigation environment of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic.Based on the comprehensive analysis of the factors affecting the navigation environment of the Northeast shipping route in the Arctic,the evaluation index system of the navigation environment of the Northeast shipping route in the Arctic was summarized and screened.Through the method of ‘sea area + strait’,the Northeast Passage is divided into five sections A,B,C,D and E from west to east.The final weights of each evaluation index were obtained by combining the subjective weighting method with the analytic hierarchy process and the objective weighting method with the entropy weighting method.When the extension method is used to deal with problems,both qualitative and quantitative analysis are featured,and the cloud model can solve the fuzzy and random problems generated in the evaluation process.The extension cloud model is built by combining the two to evaluate the navigation environment of the five segments,and the ranking results of the navigation environment of the five segments are as follows: A>E>C>B>D.In this thesis,the extension cloud model is used to evaluate the navigation environment of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic,and suggestions are put forward for the risk factors identified by the extension cloud model in the evaluation process.It provides some references for the safe navigation of ships in the Northeast waterway,and also provides a certain theoretical basis for the evaluation and research of the navigation environment of the waterway,and enrich the assessment methods of maritime traffic safety.