The Evaluation Research On The Navigation Environment Of Arctic Northeast Route Based On Cloud Model

With the global climate warming continuously, sea ice of the Arctic is melting rapidly, and the navigation expectation of the Arctic route drew near. As an important component of the Arctic route, the northeast route will bring great strategic value and commercial interests for our country by greatly reduce the voyage distance between Europe continent and our country when it opens up. Since a Finnish ship firstly passed the northeast route in1997, more and more merchant ships get though this route recent years, and it has gradually served as the rudiment of linking Asia and Europe traffic. In2009, only two merchant ships passed the northeast route, and this number increased to six in2010, thirty-four in2011, and forty-six in2012. By the year of2013, including the "Yongsheng Wheel" of COSCO, there were372ships passed through the northeast route successfully. The environmental conditions of the northeast route are key factors affecting the commercial develop and safe navigation. Therefore, this article selects the Arctic northeast route as study object to analyze and evaluate its navigation environment.The general situation of northeast route is first introduced in the thesis, and then analyzed the main factors influencing the navigation environment. On this basis, the index system for the navigation environment evaluation of the northeast route is built. Finally, the cloud model method is chosen to evaluate the navigation environment of the northeast route. In order to make the evaluation result more scientific and reasonable, the whole route is divided into five segments, and the navigation environment of each segment is evaluated and compared to find out which segments limit the navigation of northeast route. This is a fresh perspective to evaluate the navigation environment of the northeast route. The research achievements of this article are focus on the following two aspects.Firstly, a comprehensive analysis has been made for the main factors affecting the navigation environment of the northeast route. And the evaluation index system which consists of six aspects, including meteorological environment, hydrological environment, channel and strait condition, traffic control environment, navigational aids facilities and information environment and geopolitics environment is established.Additionally, the northeast route is divided into five segments according to the five marginal seas that it gets through, which are Barents Sea and Yugorsky Strait Segment, Kara Sea and Vilkitsky Strait Segment, Laptev Sea and Sannikov Strait Segment, East Siberian Sea and De Long Strait Segment and Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait Segment. Meantime, this article uses the cloud model to analyze the navigable environment evaluation of each segment, and makes a lateral comparison between the navigation environment influence factors of different segments.