| Arable land protection is not only about food security,but also about the sustainable development of economy and society.The current situation of arable land protection in China is still severe,and in the long run,it will certainly affect food security and economic development.In this context,the implementation of many government control tools,including taxation,has become an inevitable choice to adapt to the new stage of China’s economic and social development.As the only tax directly targeting arable land protection in China,the introduction of the arable land occupation tax law in 2018 has caused the arable land occupation tax to attract widespread attention again.This study measures the arable land protection effect of the arable land occupation tax in order to be able to evaluate and summarize the lessons learned for the effect of the previous policy implementation,as well as to explore the way forward for the future tax reform as well as high-quality development.This paper firstly compares the literature of domestic and foreign research from three perspectives:arable land protection,the impact of land tax on arable land protection and the impact of arable land occupation tax on arable land protection;secondly,the theoretical basis of this paper is formed by combing externality theory,tax neutrality theory and sustainable development theory;on the basis of analyzing the current situation of arable land occupation tax and arable land protection in China,the mechanism of arable land protection of arable land occupation tax is analyzed.On the basis of the analysis of the current situation of arable land tax and arable land protection in China,we analyze the mechanism of arable land protection of arable land tax;again,we select the indicators of arable land protection and arable land tax,and measure the policy effect of arable land tax using the panel data model with the data of 30 provinces in China’s mainland from 2005 to 2019 as the sample;and divide the 30 provinces in China’s mainland into four regions:eastern region,central region,western region,and northeastern region to measure the policy effect of arable land tax.Finally,policy recommendations are proposed based on the measurement results.The study find that:(1)From the theoretical point of view,the arable land occupation tax mainly achieves the protection of arable land through the regulating effect of taxation and earmarking of funds,and this effect may differ from region to region depending on the level of economic development,arable land resource endowment and the main body of policy implementation.(2)From the empirical results,at the national level,the arable land occupation tax,as a policy tool for arable land protection,is indeed beneficial to the improvement of arable land protection,with an increase of 0.0213 percentage points in year-end arable land area for every 1 percentage point increase in arable land occupation tax revenue.At the regional level,there are regional differences in the effect of arable land conservation by arable land occupation tax.In both eastern and western regions,the implementation of the arable land occupation tax policy can enhance the effect of arable land protection and achieve the goal of arable land protection.For each percentage point increase in arable land occupation tax revenue,the year-end arable land area in the eastern region will increase by 0.0249 percentage points,and the year-end arable land area in the western region will increase by 0.0326 percentage points correspondingly,and the arable land protection effect of arable land occupation tax is more prominent in the western region.In the central and northeastern regions,for each percentage point increase in revenue from arable land occupation tax,the year-end arable land area will decrease by 0.0571 and 0.1324 percentage points.The arable land occupation tax will have a suppressive effect on the arable land protection effect,and the policy effect of arable land occupation tax shows obvious regional heterogeneity in different regions.(3)The effect of arable land protection is influenced by urbanization level,fixed asset investment,grain production and industrial structure,but it shows different directions and statistical characteristics in different samples.In the central and northeastern regions,the level of urbanization has a positive effect on the arable land effect.Fixed asset investment has a suppressive effect on the effect of arable land conservation both at the national level and in the east and west regions,and contributes to the realization of arable land conservation in the northeast region.Industrial structure contributes to arable land conservation nationally and in the four regions,but not significantly in the east and west.Grain production has a positive effect on arable land conservation,and the increase of grain production is beneficial to the realization of arable land conservation. |