| Urbanization is a symbol of the progress of human civilization and a necessary path for China’s modernization construction.The rapid advancement of urbanization has gradually highlighted many contradictions,such as the contradiction between explosive population growth and gradual resource shortage,the contradiction between disorderly economic growth and ecological environment protection,which has brought enormous pressure to the traditional urban development model.Sustainable cities are considered to be an ideal model that can solve the complex urban problems at this stage and enable cities to move towards a better future with vigor.However,the urban environment in China is diverse,and it is a difficult task to realize the construction of sustainable cities according to local conditions.In recent years,cities in Shandong Province have developed in various aspects,with steady industrialization and increasing comprehensive capacity.However,at the same time,it has also brought a series of problems such as ecological damage,environmental pollution,and resource waste,seriously restricting the sustainable development of cities in Shandong Province.In this context,a comprehensive measurement of the sustainability of cities in Shandong Province,exploring the level of urban sustainable development,characteristics of development spatial pattern,and reasons for development differences,can help promote higher level,higher quality,and more sustainable development of cities in Shandong Province.In response to the Sustainable Development Goals of "building inclusive,safe,resilient and sustainable cities and human communities" of the United Nations,this paper studies 16 Prefecture-level city in Shandong Province through combing relevant literature and theoretical summary,and constructs an urban sustainable development evaluation index system from the four dimensions of resilience,sustainability,security and inclusiveness in combination with the current situation of economic and social development in Shandong Province,The entropy weighted TOPSIS method is used to comprehensively measure the urban sustainability level of 16 Prefecture-level city in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020.The core density analysis,coordination analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis of Arc GIS and Stata software are used to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern evolution characteristics of urban sustainability in Shandong Province.Finally,Tobit regression model is constructed to analyze the influencing factors,And propose targeted suggestions on how to improve the quality of sustainable urban construction in Shandong Province.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)From the perspective of time change,the overall sustainable comprehensive level of Shandong Province in the study period showed an upward trend,but the overall level was not high,and the gap between cities at various levels showed a small fluctuation downward trend.The levels of resilience,sustainability,safety,and inclusivity have all increased to varying degrees,and the gaps between various subsystems are constantly decreasing.The development situation of each city varies,and can be divided into four categories: "high positive slow type","medium positive slow type","medium positive fast type",and "low positive fast type".From 2011 to 2020,the Moran’s I index experienced two stages of changes: "fluctuating upward" and "continuous downward".The spatial correlation and agglomeration overall showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.The comprehensive and coordinated development level of sustainable level and the coordinated development level between subsystems are between mild imbalance and near imbalance.(2)From the perspective of spatial changes,the overall level of urban sustainability in Shandong Province was high in the east and low in the west during the research period;The northern part is high and the southern part is low.Although the number of cities with higher and higher levels has increased slightly,the spatial difference is still obvious.The resilience subsystem exhibits a distribution pattern of high in the north and low in the south,with a significant overall gap within the province.The distribution pattern of the sustainability subsystem has gradually evolved from high in the east to low in the west to a distribution pattern with Qingdao and Dongying as the core.The safety subsystem gradually spreads from the initial "V" distribution centered on Dongying and Weihai to the surrounding areas.The high-level areas of the inclusive subsystem gradually decrease from patchy distribution to scattered distribution,and the overall number gradually decreases from west to east.The "high and high" agglomeration areas with sustainable levels were mainly distributed in the Yantai area in 2010;The "low and low" agglomeration areas mainly occur in the southwestern region of Shandong.In addition,the spatial differentiation of coordination degree is roughly the same,with Jinan,Qingdao,Weihai,and Dongying as the core,radiating and driving the improvement of coordination degree throughout the province.(3)The industrial structure,economic level,opening-up,and technological progress have a significant positive impact on the sustainable level of cities,while the impact of government investment and other intervention measures is not significant.Promoting industrial transformation,optimizing industrial spatial layout,improving the quality of economic development,achieving high-quality economic development,improving the quality of opening up,promoting the formation of a new pattern of opening up,strengthening government guidance,better playing the role of the government,creating a good innovation environment,and increasing innovation investment are the key to improving the sustainable urban quality of Shandong Province. |
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