Study On The Risk Management Of Early Decision-Making Of "Encore Pingyao" Tourism Performing Art Project

In recent years,with the in-depth development of cultural tourism integration,tourism performing arts has spread all over China and become one of the key development projects of the government and scenic spots.However,tourism performing arts projects are characterized by large investment scale and long payback period,making them always accompanied by higher risks in the development process.Especially in the early decision-making stage,the project has the greatest uncertainty,risk and motivation,which becomes the key to the success or failure of the project development.Therefore,it is necessary to fully understand the risks in the early stage of tourism performance arts projects,and to maximize the grasp and prevention of risks.This paper takes a risk management perspective and selects Wang Chaoge’s first large-scale immersion tourism performance project,"Encore Pingyao",as an empirical case study.Firstly,the basic situation of the project is described,and the risk factors affecting the pre-project decision are identified by using literature collection method,historical data method and expert consultation method,including five primary risk indicators of political environment risk,market risk,site risk,performance quality risk and financial risk,and 12 secondary risk indicators.Second,the risk assessment model of AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was constructed.The Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to calculate the weight vector of risk factors,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to make a comprehensive assessment of the project’s pre-decisional risk,and the conclusion that the overall risk level of the project is "low risk" was reached,which is in line with the actual situation of the project.Finally,based on the risk assessment results,countermeasures for pre-project decision risks are proposed.This study applies risk management theories and methods to the tourism performing arts industry,which helps project decision makers fully understand the probability and impact of risks and provides a basis for scientific decision-making in the early project stage.The risk identification methods,risk assessment models and risk response strategies used in the paper have evident reference roles for other tourism performance projects.