| The population aging trend is the most important trend of population age structure change in the world today,and our country is no exception,and it shows fast and deep characteristics.According to the fifth census survey,in 2000,the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above reached 7%,which began to enter the aging society.The proportion of the elderly population in rural areas was 7.35%,which was slightly higher than that of the elderly population in urban areas by 1 percentage point.By the seventh census in 2020,the proportion of senior citizens in rural areas had risen to 17.72 percent,6 percentage points higher than that in urban areas.Our country is in the stage of high quality economic development while aging urban and rural inversion is getting worse,will bring important influence on the economic and social development.Moreover,because there are many indicators reflecting population aging,it is of great significance to use these indicators to comprehensively reflect the evolution process and trend of urban-rural inversion of aging,understand its influence mechanism,and then put forward corresponding policies and measures to alleviate the negative impact of urban-rural inversion of aging.The existing research focuses on the temporal and spatial evolution of aging level and its influence mechanism,while there is relatively little research on the urban-rural inversion of aging,and most of them are qualitative research.Therefore,this paper takes China’s provinces from 2000 to 2020 as the research object.Firstly,the theoretical and empirical studies on aging and the inversion of aging between urban and rural areas are summarized and summarized to build the theoretical basis of this study.Then,the index system of urban aging,rural aging and urban and rural aging inversion is constructed from the breadth and depth.Descriptive statistical analysis and spatial statistical analysis are used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of urban aging,rural aging and urban and rural aging inversion in 31 inland provinces since the new century.Then,the geographical weighted regression model,temporal geographical weighted regression model and spatiotemporal geographical weighted regression model were used to explore the influencing factors and effects of rural-urban inversion of population aging from the perspective of spatial and temporal correlation and heterogeneity,and targeted policy recommendations were made based on the empirical research results.The main conclusions of the study are as follows(1)From 2000 to 2020,the level of urban aging changed from a slight fluctuation to a steady rising trend,while the rural aging showed a steady rising trend;The average development trend of aging at the national level can be divided into two stages: In the first stage,from 2001 to 2010,the degree of aging in rural areas was always lower than that in urban areas,and there was no urban-rural inversion.After 2010,the urban-rural inversion appeared and increased,and there was a large gap between the degree of urban-rural inversion of aging in eastern China and that in central and western China.(2)In terms of spatial distribution pattern,the spatial differences of urban aging,rural aging and urban-rural inversion of aging are increasing year by year,and gradually show a spatial agglomeration and heterogeneous pattern with higher east and lower west.In terms of spatial agglomeration,the high value areas of urban aging and rural aging are mainly concentrated in Sichuan and Chongqing region,Yangtze River Delta region and Northeast China.In the process of gradually spreading to the whole country,the urban-rural inversion of aging has gradually evolved into a spatial distribution pattern of "high-high" agglomeration area in the eastern coastal areas and "low-low" agglomeration area in the western coastal areas.(3)In the empirical analysis of the factors affecting the urban-rural inversion of aging,the spatiotemporal and geographical weighted regression model in the adopted model has better fitting effect.As a whole,the mortality rate,population inflow rate,urban-rural income gap,industrialization process and urbanization level have a significant positive impact on the rural-urban inversion of population aging,while the birth rate,economic development level,number of beds in health institutions per 1,000 people,average years of education are mainly negative,and all have significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity.Specifically,the regional difference of the positive effect of population inflow rate is related to the population flow gap.The influence of economic development has two stages.When the economic level is low,the influence is positive,and when the economic level is high,the influence is negative.The strongest positive effect of industrialization process is concentrated in North China where heavy and chemical industries are developed.The influence of urbanization level is closely related to the urbanization process of a province.In the rapid development stage of the urbanization process,the positive effect of urbanization will be gradually significant and improved.The high negative effect of the number of hospital beds per 1000 people and the average years of schooling gradually concentrated in northeast China. |
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