Study On The Relationship Between The Change Of Rural Population Age Structure And The Scale Of Labor Force Transfer In Jilin Province

After the major decision and deployment of the rural revitalization strategy made at the19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,governments at all levels have embarked on the journey of building a new era of rural areas.In this process,the transfer of rural population and rural labor force is the top priority in promoting the rural revitalization strategy.However,according to the bulletin of the Sixth and seventh censuses,the demographic development of rural areas has reached a turning point.From the outside,the rural population is shrinking in most parts of China.Internally,the age structure of the population in rural areas of China is also undergoing significant changes.However,both of these changes will have an impact on the transfer of rural labor force.For Jilin Province,the development speed of urbanization has slowed down,and the changes in the age structure of rural population are becoming increasingly prominent.The impact on the transfer of rural labor force in Jilin Province is also becoming more profound.So this article explores the relationship between the age structure changes of rural population in Jilin Province and the scale of labor force,predicts the future scale of rural labor force transfer in Jilin Province,and provides relevant development suggestions for the subsequent promotion of rural revitalization strategy in Jilin Province.This article uses literature research and econometric model analysis methods to study and analyze the relationship between changes in rural population structure and the scale of labor transfer in Jilin Province.On the basis of elaborating on the theories related to population structure and labor transfer,this paper analyzes the factors that affect labor transfer in Jilin Province,mainly including the number of rural population,population age structure,per capita disposable income ratio between urban and rural areas,and rural agricultural technology level.Based on this,this article conducts an empirical analysis on the factors that affect the transfer of rural labor in Jilin Province.Firstly,this article constructed an econometric model and selected the age structure of rural population and other factors as relevant variables.With the help of Stata17 statistical software,detailed data organization and analysis were carried out.Secondly,the basic regression analysis is completed from four aspects: descriptive statistical analysis,correlation analysis and unit root test,benchmark regression and result analysis,and robustness test.Finally,different parameters for predicting future rural population were determined based on the actual situation in various regions of Jilin Province,and the PADIS population prediction software was used to predict the future rural population and labor transfer scale in Jilin Province,and relevant conclusions were drawn.The main research conclusion of this article is as follows: The proportion of the population aged 18-60 in rural areas of Jilin Province to the total population will have a positive impact on the scale of labor transfer,and for every 1% increase in the proportion of the population aged18-60,the proportion of rural labor transfer to the total rural population will increase by 0.227 units.The proportion of people over 60 years old in the total population will also have a positive impact on labor transfer in Jilin Province,and the proportion will increase by 1%,resulting in an increase of 0.207 units in the proportion of labor transfer scale.In terms of the scale of future rural labor transfer,Jilin Province had a relatively large scale of labor transfer between 2020 and 2025,with a negative value in 2050.This article believes that there are certain problems in population structure changes in Jilin Province,mainly manifested as prominent aging issues,uneven urbanization development,and large urban disparities.Based on the research on the relationship between the changes in rural population structure and the scale of labor transfer in Jilin Province,reasonable suggestions can be proposed to provide some decision-making references for the future development of urbanization in Jilin Province.At the same time,it also contributes to the scientific transfer of rural labor in Jilin Province and promotes the healthy development of the economy in Jilin Province.