Study Of Universityaccident-Typeemergen Cy Management Based On System Dynamics Evolution Simulation

At present,with the continuous increase of security emergencies in universities,campus security issues are gradually exposed,leading to greater challenges for universities.It is against this background that this article takes university accident-type emergencies as the research object,based on the public safety triangle theory,through analyzing the evolutionary system of accidents,using system dynamics methods to model,and finally simulating actual cases in universities,looking for core factors that can inhibit the evolution level of university emergencies,and making recommendations for university emergency management,In order to improve the current situation of universities’ response to accidents and emergencies,and ensure the safety of the campus.This article has collected university laboratory emergencies in the past decade as typical events,and based on the theory of the public safety triangle,using case analysis and expert scoring methods to summarize the important influencing factors leading to university accident-type emergencies and their evolution,and has constructed a system of factors for the evolution of university accident-type emergencies.Then,using the theory and modeling method of system dynamics,the evolutionary system of accident-type emergencies in universities is decomposed into three subsystems: disaster intensity,environmental disaster tolerance,and emergency management.Through in-depth analysis of the internal relationships between each subsystem and its factors,a dynamic simulation model and equation are established.Finally,taking the "Nanjing University of Technology Laboratory Explosion Accident" as an example,expert experience is used to assign relevant parameters.With the help of VENSIM PLE software,The relevant system evolution level chart can be drawn to provide policy recommendations for the evolution of accident type emergencies in universities at the level of each subsystem.