The Impact Of Fertility Rate And Intergenerational Transfer On Housing Demand

In recent years,Chinese fertility rate has changed significantly.Along with this changes,Chinese fertility policy has also been adjusted.In this context,a large number of literatures have analyzed the causes of changes in fertility rates,the possible consequences of changes in fertility rates,and how to adjust fertility policies in response to changes in fertility rates.In general,Chinese fertility rate is declining,and this trend has brought about the phenomenon of"low birth rate",which is unique to Chinese families.Some studies have pointed out that the emergence of the phenomenon of "low birth rate" in the family will further strengthen the altruistic moti vation of the elderly to support the housing demand of young people,so that part of the housing demand of young people will be transferred to the elderly,and this phenomenon is also known as intergenerational transfer of house purchasing.However,there are few literatures that incorporates the intergenerational transfer of house purchasing into the analysis framework of theoretical models.Existing literature only discusses the impact of intergenerational transfer of house purchasing on housing demand in China at the macroeconomic level,and the old-age dependency ratio is used in the literature as a measure of intergenerational transfer of house purchasing.There is a large measurement error in the indicators of intergenerational transfer.Based on this research background,it is necessary to analyze the impact mechanism of fertility rate and intergenerational transfer of house purchasing on housing demand.Therefore,this study firstly constructs an OLG model including fertility rate,intergenerational transfer of house purchasing and housing demand,and conducts empirical analysis using the 2018 national tracking survey data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study,and uses "parents make regular payment of mortgage and other expenses to their children" as an empirical indicator of intergenerational transfer of house purchasing.The derivation results of the theoretical model and the comparative static results show that the fertility rate is negatively correlated with housing demand and per capita capital stock,while the intergenerational transfer of house purchasing is positively correlated with housing demand and per capita capital stock.By constructing an econometric model,this study empirically tests the theoretical hypothesis.The empirical results show that:(1)Generally speaking,an increase in the fertility rate will lead to a decrease in housing demand and per capita capital stock,while an increase in the intergenerational transfer of house purchasing will lead to an increase in housing demand and per capita capital stock.Regionally,an increase in the intergenerational transfer of house purchasing in urban areas will lead to an increase in housing demand and capital stock per capita compared to rural areas.In terms of financial asset ranges,the increase in the intergenerational transfer of house purchasing in households with low financial assets will only lead to an increase in the capital stock per capita;the increase in the intergenerational transfer of house purchasing in households with medium financial assets will significantly increase the housing demand;The increase in the intergenerational transfer of house purchasing among asset households has no effect on housing demand and capital stock per capita;(2)Unlike previous studies,the intergenerational transfer of house purchasing has no relationship with gender,which means that there is no significant difference in the intergenerational transfers of house purchasing between men and women;(3)Intergenerational transfers also didn’t affect housing demand through gender.According to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis,this study believes that an increase in the fertility rate cannot lead to an increase in housing demand.At the same time,attention should be paid to the driving effect of the intergenerational transfer of house purchasing on housing demand,and government should improve the social security system for the elderly,which not only it can promote housing demand and reduce the pension pressure of the elderly.