The Effect Of Housing Price On Birth Rate

Since China’s reform and opening up,with the continuous economic and social development and the continuous advancement of urbanization,the birth rate has been declining year by year,and the total fertility rate has been lower than the generation replacement level.The low fertility rate has increased the uncertainties faced by China’s future economic healthy development.Corresponding to this is the sharp rise in housing prices,the growth rate is far faster than the growth rate of residents’ income,causing a heavy burden on residents’ lives.In the composition of household expenditure,housing expenditure and child-rearing expenditure are two important parts of household expenditure,and housing cost is an important economic factor that affects residents’ reproductive decision-making.The two are bound to interact under the constraints of household budgets.From the perspective of housing,this paper attempts to explore the impact of high housing price on the birth rate by combining theory and empirical evidence,and according to the conclusion,puts forward the pertinence basis for the benign development of the real estate market and the effective implementation of population policy,so as to stabilize the high housing price and low birth rate.In this article,through a systematic literature review at home and abroad,based on the theory of new family economics,using the provincial panel data from 2004 to2019,the empirical analysis of the impact of high prices for the birth rate,further analyzed the impact of high prices for the birth rate in eastern,central and western three areas of the regional differences,in order to solve the problems of endogenous model,In this paper,the per capita land purchase area of real estate enterprises is selected as the instrumental variable of housing price,and the endogenous analysis is carried out.In order to ensure the robustness of the results,the robustness test is carried out.Finally,empirical conclusions are drawn and policy suggestions are put forward.The empirical results show that;There is a significant negative correlation between housing price and birth rate,indicating that high housing price will restrain the rise of birth rate.Results of regional differences show that;The rising housing price has a negative correlation with the birth rate in the eastern,central and western regions.Among them,the influence coefficient of housing price on the birth rate is larger in the eastern and central provinces with relatively developed economic development,and the result is significant,while the result is not significant in the western provinces.Finally,the author suggests that the government should implement differentiated macro-control to control the rise of housing prices.Maternity benefits,such as paid maternity leave;Increase housing support for unmarried young people;The government will improve the old-age security system and increase the construction of childcare facilities.