An Empirical Study On The Impact Of The Football Association’s Salary Limit Policy On The Competitive Balance Of The Chinese Super League

Since the reform of football professionalization,especially after the introduction of the "China Football Reform and Development Overall Plan",the development of my country’s professional football league has reached a new level.Under the new development stage,the league ’ s attendance and ratings have repeatedly reached new highs."Golden Dollar Football" has helped Pushing down the wealthy clubs headed by Guangzhou Evergrande have achieved great success in the league and AFC matches,and the international influence of the Chinese Super League has greatly increased.At the same time,many problems have been exposed during the development of the league.Especially in recent years,clubs have "followed the trend and burned money" and robbed players,causing huge salary bubbles,increasing competition imbalance in the league,and seriously affecting the healthy development of the league.The "salary limit" policy came into being in this context.The "salary limit" policy was promulgated at the end of 2018 and implemented in 2019.At the end of 2020,the specific content was partially adjusted.The main purpose is to reduce the blind investment of clubs,increase the scale of the professional league market,and promote the healthy development of the league.As the core and key of professional leagues,the balance of competition is an important criterion and ultimate goal for league managers to carry out policy planning and research.For the Chinese Super League,the balance of competition is also an important sign of the club’s reduction of the "arms race" and the healthy development of the league.Therefore,this article takes the balance of competition as an entry point,and uses the evaluation of public policy as the theoretical basis to explore the impact of the "restricted salary" policy on the balance of competition.Result uncertainty is the external manifestation of the balance of competition,including the uncertainty of the result of a single game and the uncertainty of the result of the season.In this paper,the uncertainty of the results is taken as the research object,and the 2019 season when the "wage limit" policy is implemented is used as the time node.After considering the influencing factors such as the economic environment(epidemic),the uncertainty of the results is analyzed by the moving average method and the double difference method.The research conclusion shows that the salary limit policy has a positive effect on the competition balance at the level of game result uncertainty,but fails to have a positive impact on the competition balance at the level of season result uncertainty.The details are as follows: 1.From the perspective of the uncertainty of the season results,the competitive imbalance of the Chinese Super League in the 2010-2018 season before the implementation of the salary limit policy generally showed a worsening trend and fluctuated greatly,and the dominance of the top five clubs in the league continued to strengthen.In the 2019 season after the implementation of the salary limit policy,the imbalance of competition further intensified and reached its peak in recent years,with the top five clubs in the league having the greatest dominance.The competitive imbalance in the 2020 season has improved,but the competitive imbalance in the 2021 season has begun to worsen.2.From the perspective of the uncertainty of the results of a single game,the salary limit policy has a negative impact on the difference in winning odds,indicating that the salary limit policy has a positive effect on the balance of competition.Further research finds that the salary limit policy promotes the rational distribution of players among clubs by optimizing the mismatch of human capital,and the degree of competition imbalance in the league is thus improved.The dynamic effect shows that the influence of the salary limit policy begins to appear in the second year,and the impact of the salary limit policy on the balance of competition has a lagging effect.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the salary limit policy has the strongest inhibitory effect on the difference in game winning odds between high-paid clubs and low-paid clubs.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward suggestions from the following aspects: 1.Regarding the salary limit policy: The policy design is more flexible,and the salary limit standard is defined by grading and classification;The policy improvement is more specific,and the specific content is refined according to the actual situation of the club;Policy collocation is more diverse,forming policy synergy with "Admission Adjustment Fee","U23 Policy",etc.;Policy formulation is more humane,giving play to the leading role of the Chinese Super League,and increasing players’ right to speak;Policy implementation is more lasting,forming The long-term mechanism will continue to play the role of the salary limit policy in curbing the "gold-dollar bubble" and improving the balance of competition.2.Expand social capital investment,"combining dredging and blocking",not "only blocking but not sparse".3.Based on the league,handle the relationship between the league and the national team.