Rising House Prices,Heterogeneous Labor Flow And Manufacturing Industry Transfer

As an effective way to optimize the spatial distribution of productive forces,form a rational industrial division system,promote the adjustment of Industrial structure,and changing the mode of economic development,industrial transfer has also attracted much attention.Since 2004,labor costs in the eastern coastal areas have risen rapidly,and manufacturing industry has begun to shift to the central and Western regions.Similarly,around 2004,housing prices began to rise rapidly,and the impact of rising housing prices on labor mobility and industrial development has become a topic of concern to all sectors of society.Since 2004,the rapid rise of housing prices and the emergence of turning points of industrial transfer in the eastern region,whether there is an inherent relationship between them? If the industrial transfer is caused by the rapid rise of housing prices,which will affect the direction of labor flow,it will cause the illusion that the comparative advantage of China's abundant labor resources has "ended",thus deviating from the actual comparative advantage,and ultimately damaging the overall competitiveness of China's industry.Therefore,judging the motivation of industrial transfer will directly affect the understanding of China's economic development stage,and then affect the formulation of national industrial,regional and even macro policies.This paper attempts to explore the relationship between housing price rise,heterogeneous labor mobility and industrial transfer,and how housing price rise affects Heterogeneous Labor mobility,and ultimately affects industrial transfer.Therefore,we can not help thinking: what is the law of industrial transfer caused by rising house prices and what types of industrial transfer are triggered? What is the intermediate mechanism of Heterogeneous Labor mobility? Is the industrial transfer triggered by high housing prices a spontaneous structural adjustment,or a "cage for bird" mode of industrial upgrading,or a bottleneck to restrain industrial upgrading? Is the regulation policy of house price conducive to industrial transfer? This series of problems show that it is necessary to explore the relationship between housing prices,heterogeneous labor mobility and industrial transfer.Based on the above considerations,this paper studies the relationship between housing prices,heterogeneous labor mobility and industrial transfer in the framework of new economic geography,trying to answer the above questions,in order to explain the phenomenon of regional industrial transfer and labor mobility in the process of rapid rising housing prices in China,so as to provide reference for management to solve the problems of regional industrial transfer and industrial upgrading under high housing prices.This paper takes the industrial transfer caused by heterogeneous labor mobility as the logical starting point,takes the relationship between house price rise and industrial transfer as the main line,and comprehensively uses the methods of theoretical modeling,empirical analysis and project evaluation to systematically analyze the internal mechanism of the influence of house price rise on Heterogeneous Labor Mobility and industrial transfer from the theoretical level,and combines with the number of double-digit industry panels in China.According to the empirical test of urban panel data and provincial panel data,this paper also evaluates the impact of real estate tax on industrial transfer.The main work of this paper is embodied in the following aspects:(1)Through exploratory data analysis,this paper studies the spatial and temporal characteristics of housing price rise and manufacturing transfer,and finds that since 2004,the rapid rise of housing prices and manufacturing transfer in the eastern region have occurred almost simultaneously.Cities and provinces with higher housing price rise also have relatively more manufacturing industries transferred outward.The transfer of manufacturing employment share in the eastern region lags behind that of output value share.The shift shows that the labor productivity of manufacturing industry is declining;There is a negative correlation between the housing price rise and the share of manufacturing industry.The greater the increase of housing price in the eastern region,the greater the share of manufacturing industry will shift to the central and western regions.(2)Based on the observation of the characteristics of China's housing price rise and manufacturing transfer,the interaction mechanism between housing price rise,heterogeneous labor flow and manufacturing transfer is studied by establishing an extended free entrepreneur(FE)model.The theoretical research finds that the spatial distribution of skilled labor determines the spatial distribution of industry.With the increase of skilled labor,the share of manufacturing industry increases.When the increase of skilled labor reaches a critical point,the regional industry begins to realize structural upgrading.In the long run,both skilled labor and unskilled labor are inversely related to housing prices;in the late stage of industrial diffusion.The rise in house prices mainly leads to the outward transfer of manufacturing industry by squeezing out highly skilled labor force.(3)Using the panel data of 286 prefecture-level cities in 30 provinces and cities in China,and using OLS and 2SLS methods,this paper empirically examines the impact of rising house prices on industrial transfer.The empirical results of city-level data and provincial-level data show that the rise of housing prices significantly reduces the industrial share and employment share of cities and provinces,leading to industrial outward transfer;there are industry and regional differences in the impact of rising housing prices on industrial transfer.The impact of housing price rise on industrial transfer varies among industries.The crowding out effect of housing price rise on technology-intensive industries and resource-intensive industries is relatively large,and the industrial transfer caused by housing price does not play the role of “emptying the cage for changing the bird”.(4)Using panel data at the provincial level,this paper empirically examines the intermediate mechanism of the impact of rising house prices on the transfer of manufacturing industry.The results show that the low-skilled labor force has a significant positive impact on manufacturing agglomeration,and the high-skilled labor force has a significant inverted "U" effect on manufacturing agglomeration.In addition to Beijing and Shanghai,other provinces and cities are still in the stage of relying on skilled labor force and ordinary labor force to promote manufacturing agglomeration;the rise of housing prices has significantly promoted the agglomeration of ordinary labor force,but has squeezed out high-skilled labor force.Therefore,the rise of housing prices in China's cities mainly leads to the transfer of manufacturing industry by squeezing out highly skilled labor force.(5)Through exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric methods,the spatial interaction between housing prices and manufacturing transfer is tested.The results show that there are significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity in industrial layout and housing price spatial distribution;at the national level and in the western region,the rise of housing prices in adjacent cities has significantly promoted the production value and employment of manufacturing industry to agglomerate locally;the rise of housing prices in adjacent cities in the eastern region has restrained the upgrading of local manufacturing industry;and the transfer of housing prices and manufacturing industry in the central region is not significant.Spatial interaction effect.(6)Applying the synthetic control method,by evaluating the impact of real estate tax on industrial transfer,we find that the real estate tax policy is beneficial to promote industrial agglomeration on the whole,but the effect of the policy will be affected by the city characteristics,the intensity and intensity of the implementation of the real estate tax policy,etc.Chongqing's real estate tax policy is conducive to undertaking industrial transfer,and Shanghai's real estate tax policy is conducive to undertaking industrial transfer.To a certain extent,it is helpful to the adjustment of industrial structure,but it still fails to meet the expectation of "changing cages for birds".Among them,the difference between Chongqing's and Shanghai's real estate tax policies on heterogeneous labor mobility is an important reason that the policy effects of real estate tax on industrial transfer are quite different between the two cities.Finally,this paper summarizes the main conclusions of the study,and draws useful policy implications on this basis,and prospects the shortcomings of this study.