| Population is the natural basis of social material life and plays an important role in the development of a country or region.Its size and structure can accelerate or delay the development process of the whole society.As the number of the elderly population continues to increase and the process of population aging continues to advance,the burden of social support has increased and labor resources are lacking,thus affecting the direction of industrial structure adjustment,but at the same time,population aging will also have a good impact on the development of the aging cause.Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture is located at the border of China,Korea and Russia.The stability and development of Yanbian Prefecture is directly related to the stability and development of China’s ethnic regions and border areas.According to the bulletin of the seventh national population census of Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture,the proportion of the elderly over 60 years old in Yanbian Prefecture has increased to 24.93%,which is the data of 2020.This proportion shows that the proportion of the elderly in this region is much higher than that in the whole country,and the severity of the aging society is constantly increasing,which has a very serious negative impact on the industrial structure.Under such a background,this study focuses on how aging affects the industrial structure of Yanbian Prefecture,providing a particularly good theoretical basis for the industrial development of this region,making this region not afraid of the aggravation of aging,seize this opportunity,and strive to grow its economic level.This paper combines qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods.Based on the theory of population transformation and the theory of industrial structure evolution,this paper constructs a vector autoregression model based on the time series data from 1995 to 2020 to analyze the population aging and industrial structure of Yanbian Prefecture,and deeply studies the specific impact of the former on the latter.The following conclusions are drawn through analysis:First,Yanbian Prefecture entered the aging society earlier,and the aging population of Yanbian Prefecture has shown the characteristics of the proportion of the elderly population rising continuously and growing rapidly Yanbian Prefecture formed the "two three oner"industrial structure pattern from 1999 to 2004.Before 2017,the secondary industry and tertiary industry in Yanbian Prefecture had almost developed simultaneously.Nowadays,the industrial structure pattern of "three one" has been formed.Second,the aging population will directly lead to the shortage of labor force in the primary and secondary industries,and promote the transformation and upgrading of labor-intensive industries to technology intensive industries by accelerating technological innovation and other means.On the other hand,it will affect the industrial structure by influencing the consumption demand structure of the society.The improvement of the consumption demand of the elderly will promote the development of emerging tertiary industries such as elderly health,elderly medical care and elderly tourism,thus playing a positive role in enriching the industry and promoting the coordinated development of the industrial structure.Third,in the analysis of the grey correlation between the population aging and various industries in Yanbian Prefecture,the grey correlation between the population aging and the three industries is 0.5458,0.7281 and 0.7784 respectively.The population aging in Yanbian Prefecture is the least closely related to the primary industry and the most closely related to the tertiary industry.Accelerating the population aging will inhibit the development of the primary and secondary industries and promote the development of the tertiary industry.Fourthly,in the impulse response analysis,the degree of response of Yanbian’s industrial structure to the impact of aging will gradually increase after the initial response is negative.In the long run,the overall impact is positive,and in the long run,government intervention,technological progress and urbanization level can promote the development of industrial structure.In variance decomposition analysis,population aging and other variables can play a role in varying degrees in the change of industrial structure.The contribution of population aging to the development of industrial structure shows a first rise and then decline,and finally maintains a stable and high impact trend.Among other control variables,the contribution of government intervention to the development of industrial structure is the smallest.Technological progress is the variable that contributes the most to the development of industrial structure except for the industrial structure itself.The level of urbanization also has a greater impact on the industrial structure.On the basis of the conclusions obtained in this paper,the following four appropriate and useful countermeasures and suggestions are put forward:First,give full play to the advantages of the Korean minority in Yanbian Prefecture,publicize and encourage young people to have more children,publicize and implement the national fertility policy,retain the original Korean family fertility policy in Yanbian Prefecture,and effectively improve the fertility level in Yanbian Prefecture;Second,improve the labor force that can be attracted by various industries in Yanbian,attract and retain young talents,improve the quality of labor force in Yanbian,implement flexible retirement age system for different elderly people,and play the role of elderly human capital;Third,give full play to the geographical advantages of Yanbian,cultivate the advantageous industries with Yanbian characteristics,adjust the industrial structure of Yanbian,complement the advantageous industries in various regions,and balance the industrial development in various regions of Yanbian;Fourth,promote the development of Yanbian’s aging industry,develop Yanbian’s "silver hair market",promote the development of the tertiary industry,and then promote the adjustment of Yanbian’s industrial structure. |
PDF Full Text Request