Research On The Impact Of The New Rural Endowment Insurance On The Labor Supply Of The Rural Elderly

It has been 14 years since the implementation of the new rural endowment insurance policy in 2009,which has made up for the long-standing institutional gap in China’s rural endowment insurance system.However,there are also problems of low level of guarantee and poor incentive.At the present time when China’s population aging is increasingly serious and the labor burden of the rural elderly is heavy,it is of great significance to study the effect of the new rural endowment insurance policy on labor supply.Based on the above background,this paper combs the literature about the relationship between endowment insurance and labor supply,and analyzes the evolution process of the new rural endowment insurance policy and the current situation of labor supply.Then we do the theoretical analysis about how new rural pension affects the elderly’s labor supply.Based on the data of CHARLS in 2011,2013,2015 and 2018,this paper empirically analyze the impact of new rural pension on labor supply by using the two-way fixed effect model.And we use the method of reducing samples and instrumental variables to test the robustness.In order to understand the impact of the new rural endowment insurance on the labor supply structure,this paper divides the labor supply into two categories,agricultural and non-agricultural labor supply,and specifically divides it into five sub-categories.We also use two-way fixed effect model for regression analysis.On the basis of full sample regression,this paper makes a heterogeneity analysis according to different groups of gender,pension income level,whether to rely on children to support the elderly,labor supply level,education level and the value family irrigated land,which discusses the influence of the new rural insurance on labor supply comprehensively and deeply.According to the empirical results,the main conclusions are as follows:(1)The new rural insurance mainly affects the labor supply through the income effect.Receiving the new rural insurance pension and increasing the pension income will significantly reduce the"endless labor will"and labor supply of the rural elderly population.(2)From the perspective of the structure of labor supply,receiving the new rural insurance pension will significantly reduce the supply of non-agricultural labor,but has no significant impact on agricultural labor supply.However,with the increase of the pension,the supply of agricultural labor,especially the supply of self-employed agricultural labor,will decrease.For the elderly under the age of 60 who have not yet reached the eligibility,the increase in the amount of pension expected in the future will significantly reduce the supply of agricultural labor and increase the supply of non-agricultural labor.(3)Through the heterogeneity test of different groups,it is found that the new rural insurance only has an impact on the labor supply of the group with high pension income,the group that is expected to rely on children in the future,the group with high labor supply and the group with low education level,and the impact is significantly negative,while the impact on the group with low pension income,the group that is not expected to rely on children in the future,the group with low labor supply and the group with high education level is not significant.It is verified that the new rural insurance has income effect on labor supply,and the new rural insurance assumes the complementary role of children’s pension.Regardless of the value of household irrigable land,male group or female group,receiving the new rural security pension will significantly reduce their total labor supply and non-agricultural labor supply,but only the female group and the group with low family irrigable land value are likely to reduce their agricultural labor supply after receiving the new rural security pension.According to the above research results,this paper puts forward the following four suggestions.First,establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism of new rural endowment insurance,improve the level of basic pension,and encourage rural residents to participate in higher payment grade.Second,give consideration to the heterogeneity and give differentiated policy support by groups.Third,strengthen the supplementary role of the new rural insurance and build a multi-level old-age security system.Fourth,cultivate successors in agricultural production and management,and improve the employment system and labor management methods for the elderly.