Population Aging And Economic Growth

The change of age structure is a slowly spontaneous process along with the economic and social development which is a common rule in most of countries and regions.Compared with the last century,great changes have taken place in China's population age structure,proportion of aged population rising constantly,the population is aging.From the perspective of the change of age structure in developed countries,population aging in developed countries came with higher levels of economic growth.In our country,population ageing came with the low level of economic growth and relative shortage of material capital which is typical characteristics of old before rich.The third plenary session of the 18 decided to take effect of the policy of "two children alone",then on October 292015,the fifth plenary session of the party's 18th and launched a population adjustment strategy,adhere to the basic state policy of family planning,improve the population development strategy,a couple can give birth to two children,actively cope with the aging of the population.In developed counties like Europe and Japan,population aging has become a relatively serious problem.The popular of late childbirth and DINK family lead to low growth rate of population in those developed counties.Foreign scholars have conducted a wide range of theoretical research and empirical analysis on the ageing population of Europe and Japan.In general,the changes of population age structure must have effect to economic growth,there are optimistic theory and pessimist.The relationship between the population age structure change and economic growth has not reach the coincident conclusion.Compared with the rest of the world,the change of China's population age structure still in a relatively short duration,and the range of the population growth rate is relatively large,which is a kind of non-stationary shift of population age structure.Family planning policy in a larger extent reduce the birth rate of China's population,the improvement of medical level and social development makes the further reduce of the mortality,which make the population aging a prominent problem in today's china where the accumulation of material capital can't compare with the developed countries.In view of the degree of population aging in China and the economic stage,aging problem deserves our serious attention and analysis.In this paper study the relationship of population aging and economic through a Static panel model.Revealing the relationship between proportion of aged population and economic growth by the panel date of 28 provinces(except Tibet and Hainan province)from 1992 to 2013,giving the reference for nation's population policy.This study has important significance both in maintain the economic stability and healthy development of our country's economic.In this paper from family and the enterprise aspects as the starting point to established the model under the condition of market clearing,it is concluded that the proportion of aged population and the other demographic variables have the influence on economic growth and the influence way in theory.When an aging population is at a lower level,population ageing give a positive effect to the physical capital is much bigger than depreciation of human capital stock,and plus the government investment in human capital,population aging at lower levels tend to has a positive effects on economic growth.As the degree of population aging,the burden of saving effect and human capital depreciation effect are under strengthen,negative effect of population aging on economic growth gradually revealed,based on the inverted U-shaped relationship,establish a empirical model that contains the elderly population proportion and it' square item,human capital and material capital stock and labor force.In the empirical analysis,examine the panel data of 28 provinces by static panel model.Through individual F test,BP-LM test and Hausman test to selection estimation method and determine estimated parameters.This article selects individual and time fixed effect model to estimate,the result shows that the elderly population parameter is positive,and the square of elderly population estimated value is negative,this result suggest that there is a U-shaped relationship between the population aging and economic growth,which is consistent with the conclusion of theoretical model.Empirical studies also found that in addition to the elderly population ratio,logarithmic working population did not has a significantly influence on economic growth,which accords with the endogenous growth theory;Other variables such as human capital and material capital to play a positive role in promoting economic growth,and relative to the material capital,human capital have greater positive influence on economic growth.Therefore,in dealing with the aging problem in China,in addition to reasonable regulation and control policy on birth control,should also continue to pay attention to the investment in education,savings and capital investment to maintain the healthy and sustainable development of our country's economy.