| Shanxi Province has been aging since 2003,and with the increase in the proportion of elderly people over 65 years old,it has brought a series of social problems such as old-age,medical and nursing care,bringing great challenges to the government and relevant departments.In recent years,Shanxi Province has actively developed commercial health insurance,and has made a series of remarkable achievements,but there are still problems such as insufficient insurance coverage and insufficient public medical service capacity.In the period of serious aging of the population in Shanxi Province,commercial health insurance should give full play to the effective supplementary role of social medical security,increase the demand for commercial health insurance of residents,and solve the problem of aging.Therefore,it is of great practical importance to study the impact of population ageing on the demand for commercial health insurance in Shanxi Province.This paper first defines the concepts related to population aging and commercial health insurance,and analyzes the theoretical basis of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs,Grossman model,utility theory and life-cycle hypothesis.Then,the current situation of population aging and the development status of commercial health insurance in Shanxi Province were analyzed in detail,and it was found that the aging population in Shanxi Province was becoming increasingly serious,and the development of commercial health insurance was backward and the insurance demand was large.On the basis of current situation analysis and theoretical analysis,the factors affecting the demand for commercial health insurance are clarified from four perspectives: demographic factors,social factors,economic factors,and policy and institutional factors.By obtaining relevant data from 2000 to 2021 in Shanxi Province,a VAR model was established to conduct an empirical study on the impact of population aging on the demand for commercial health insurance in Shanxi Province,and after impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,it was found that there was a positive correlation between the dependency ratio,urbanization rate,gross regional product and commercial health insurance premium income of the elderly population in Shanxi Province,and the average family size showed a negative correlation with commercial health insurance premium income.Moreover,the dependency ratio of the elderly population contributes the most to the premium income of commercial health insurance,and with the aggravation of aging,the demand for commercial health insurance will continue to increase.Finally,this paper proposes to promote economic development,improve residents’ income,and increase the publicity of commercial health insurance for the elderly from the government level,and to enrich health insurance categories and improve the effective supply from the insurance companies’ level,to create an exclusive business model of "insurance + medical + pension" in Shanxi Province,to actively participate in the construction of long-term care insurance system and use insurance technology to develop insurance for the elderly to promote the development of commercial health insurance in Shanxi Province. |
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