Research On The Skill Mismatch And Its Influence Mechanism Of College Graduates In China

In recent years,the problem of skill mismatch among college graduates has become increasingly prominent,which has become one of the important reasons for questioning the quality of higher education and restrict the efficiency of the labor market.Given the intensification of global competition and rapid technological progress,addressing the problem of skill mismatch is of practical significance and academic value.However,compared to foreign researches,there is a shortage of systematic empirical research on skill mismatch in China.Existing research mainly focuses on over-education.To fill the gap,this paper draws on data from CFPS and statistical yearbooks to measure the skill mismatch of college graduates in China.Using the realized matching method,we analyze the skill mismatch of Chinese college graduates,explore various aspects of this issue and its trends and characteristics,and compare education mismatch and skill mismatch.This paper reveals the talent supply and demand mismatch in China’s labor market extending beyond over-education.Furthermore,we establish an analytical model with education mismatch and skill mismatch as dependent variables,and explore potential mechanisms of influence through in-depth discussions involving individual characteristics,occupational characteristics,and contextual factors such as economic growth and education expansion.Robustness testing and heterogeneity analysis are also conducted.The key findings of the study are as follows:(1)The incidence of over-education among college graduates in China is 45.3%,the incidence of literacy and numeracy skill mismatch is 47.82%and 44.65%,and the incidence of social skill mismatch is 37.74%.Our research indicates that skill deficiencies have gradually become the dominant type of skill mismatch,and a weak correlation exists between education mismatch and non-cognitive skill mismatch.(2)Skill mismatch affects younger college graduates,and the mismatch between cognitive and non-cognitive skills is rising.The post-80 s generation demonstrates the highest rate of over-education,while the post-90 s generation displays the highest rate of skill mismatch.(3)Distinctive differences exist among various groups.The gender and urban-rural differences are also increasing over time.The incidence of over-education in institutions is increasing,while private and individual enterprises have the highest incidence of insufficient cognitive skills.Highly educated workers in Party and government organs and public institutions have the highest rate of over-cognitive skills.(4)Education is the key factor to skill mismatch.Our research demonstrates that highly educated individuals are more likely to be overeducated,display poor numeracy skills,and have overskilled literacy skills,as well as underskilled social skills.(5)We found that industry types influenced skill mismatch of college graduates differently.Lower value-added tertiary industries observe a lower incidence of overeducation and overskilling of numeracy skills than those in manufacturing industries.High-valueadded tertiary industries display a lower probability of over-education and over-numeracy skills but a higher probability of under-literacy and under-numeracy skills.(6)Our research shows that economic growth rate affects deficiencies in cognitive and non-cognitive skills.The expansion of education increases the likelihood of computing skill mismatch and poor literacy skills,while reducing the probability of excessive literacy skills and social skills deficiencies.(7)The influencing mechanisms of skill mismatch differ significantly among various groups.College graduates who are employed outside the institution are more likely to have excessive computing skills and are less prone to having excessive literacy skills and social skills.College graduates with urban household registration working within the institution are less likely to have excessive cognitive and noncognitive skills.