Research On The Spatial Spillover Effect And Threshold Effect Of Urban-rural Population Flow On Income Gap In China

The development theme of common prosperity has once again received extensive attention from all walks of life and scholars.To achieve common prosperity,the basic path is to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor,which is mainly reflected in the regional income gap and the urban-rural income gap.This paper combs the theoretical model of economic growth and the theoretical model of urban-rural dual economy,establishes the dynamic spatial Dubin model of regional income convergence and the dynamic spatial Dubin model of urban-rural income gap respectively,conducts empirical research on income gap through spatial effect decomposition,threshold regression and quantile regression,and analyzes how population mobility affects regional income gap and urban-rural income gap in the process of achieving common prosperity.Finally,based on the empirical results,the policy implications are extracted to help China achieve common prosperity at an early date.In the overall arrangement,this paper first introduces the research background and significance,and makes an overall plan for the research content.Secondly,this paper has carefully combed the relevant theories and documents on the relationship between population mobility and economic development at home and abroad,including the dual economic development model and its expansion of development economists Lewis and Todaro,and summarized the representative results of empirical research on the relationship between population mobility and economic development at home and abroad.Then,using the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2003 to 2020,this paper constructs a dynamic spatial Dubin model to explore the main factors affecting regional income gap and urban-rural income gap.On the basis of the above model,this paper decomposes the spatial effect,decomposing the spatial effect of explanatory variables on regional income gap and urban-rural income gap into long-term effect and short-term effect,direct effect and indirect effect,and makes a more detailed analysis.Finally,through threshold regression and quantile regression,we find the heterogeneity of population mobility in narrowing the urbanrural income gap in different regions.Based on the results of theoretical discussion and empirical analysis,this study summarizes the main conclusions of the impact of urban and rural population mobility on income gap under the background of common prosperity: First,China’s urban and rural population mobility has a positive significance in narrowing regional income gap and urbanrural income gap.In the calculation of regional income convergence,the average per capita income of all regions in China tends to converge at a rate of 2 percentage points.Second,population mobility has a positive spatial spillover effect on regional income gap and urbanrural income gap.At the same time,through the decomposition of spatial effect,it can be seen that the role of population mobility on regional income convergence and urban-rural income gap is mainly a long-term indirect role.Third,through the threshold regression results,it is found that there is a threshold effect on the role of advanced industrial structure and urbanization rate in narrowing the urban-rural income gap of population mobility.Fourth,through quantile regression,it is found that the role of population mobility in narrowing the urban-rural income gap in different regions is heterogeneous.Finally,based on the above empirical research results,this paper analyzes and refines the corresponding policy implications,and puts forward a number of policy recommendations for rational planning of population mobility to support the early realization of common prosperity.