Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On China’s Urban-Rural Income Gap

Since the reform and opening up,the income level of Chinese residents has been significantly improved.However,the residents is becoming rich,the urban-rural income gap is becoming increasingly serious.In the report of the 19 th National Congress,it was proposed to “solidly promote the realization of common prosperity”,and the long-term high urban-rural income disparity in China will pose a major challenge to the realization of common prosperity,and how to alleviate the urban-rural income gap in China has become a hot topic of academic research.Meanwhile,Life expectancy has been extended,and China has entered an aging society,and the degree of aging is gradually deepening,facing a series of social problems such as aging before getting rich,shortage of labor supply,and increasing burden of old age.Population aging is a compound process of economic and social development and structural change,and its impact on economy and society involves multiple levels and multiple ways.As a typical dual economy country with prominent urban-rural dual structure contradictions,will the intensification of population aging adversely affect the urban-rural income distribution pattern in China and induce new income inequality? Therefore,in the face of such a basic national situation as population aging,it is particularly important to clarify the relationship between population aging and urban-rural income disparity in China.Currently,there is literature on population aging and income distribution,but most of the existing literature studies population aging and overall income inequality in a country,while the urban-rural income gap,as a prominent manifestation of income distribution inequality in China,is a key concern for people’s livelihood in China.This paper takes the urban-rural income gap in China as the research object,It focuses on the impact of population aging on urban-rural income gap and its mechanism.Firstly,this paper compares the basic theories of population aging and urban-rural income gap,and analyzes the mechanism of action between them,concluding that population aging affects urban-rural income gap through two ways: human capital effect and industrial structure upgrading effect.Second,the regional characteristics and changing trends of population aging and urban-rural income disparity are analyzed in the current situation.Again,using provincial panel data from 2004-2019,fixed effects model,mediating effects model and panel threshold model are constructed for the econometric analysis,and the empirical results show that,firstly,population aging has a significant widening effect on the urban-rural income gap in China,and its positive effect remains significant after robustness testing by replacing core variables and establishing a dynamic panel model.Second,there is regional heterogeneity in the widening effect of population aging on the urban-rural income gap,and overall,the widening effect is significantly higher in the western region than in the eastern and central regions,among which the eastern region has the least impact.Third,population aging will make China’s urban-rural income gap widen through human capital effect and industrial structure upgrading effect,and both mechanisms of action pass the mediating effect model test,among which,industrial structure upgrading effect is stronger,so population aging has a greater impact on urban-rural income gap through industrial structure upgrading path.Fourth,there is a single threshold effect on the effect of population aging on the urban-rural income gap,China’s social security level is gradually improving,it slows down the human capital effect brought by population aging,which makes the widening effect of population aging on the urban-rural income gap weaker.Finally,based on the research findings and China’s reality,the following relevant policy recommendations are given: first,reduce the burden of rural retirement and increase the investment in rural human capital;second,break the dualistic barrier between urban and rural areas and help rural laborers to find employment;third,accelerate the construction of urban and rural integrated social security system,and try to change the urban inclined social security expenditure in the past.