| Accelerating the new urbanization is an important part of building a powerful modern socialist country.Under the new development pattern of double cycle,accelerating the construction of new urbanization is conducive to releasing the consumption potential,to provide important support for economic development.Since the founding ceremony of the People’s Republic of China,our country has made great achievements in urbanization.The urbanization rate of permanent residents has increased from 10.64% in 1949 to 64.72%in the 2021.The urbanization rate of registered permanent residents has reached 45.5%,since the 13 th five-year plan,the gap between the urbanization rate of registered permanent residents and that of registered permanent residents has been narrowed for the first time,but the difference between them also means that our country’s urbanization construction still has the huge promotion space.The data of the seventh census show that the size of the floating population in our country is as high as 375 million,exceeding the total population of the United States,the floating population’s employment,consumption and settlement in the inflow area are of great significance to the further development of the new-type urbanization construction with people as the core in our country.Due to the restriction of household registration,the floating population can not enjoy the same level of public services as the floating population,and the role of population mobility in optimizing the allocation of resources to promote the economic growth of the floating population has not been brought into full play,it failed to effectively promote the development of new urbanization.Therefore,under the guidance of the key tasks of the new urbanization construction and the urban-rural integration development,this thesis probes into the influence of the population mobility on the new urbanization,and accurately grasps the threshold effect of the household registration control in the influence of the population mobility on the new urbanization,it is of great significance to quicken the urbanization of agricultural transfer population and promote the development of new urbanization with people as the core.Firstly,this thesis reviews the domestic and foreign research progress on population migration,urbanization,household registration system reform and the relationship between the three.On this basis,it defines the important concepts involved in the research process,and expounds the important economic theories used in the analysis process,it also analyzes the influence mechanism of population mobility on the new urbanization from the perspective of the reform of household registration system.Secondly,it analyzes the status quo of the reform of household registration system and the status quo of population flow,and measures the development level of new urbanization in 30 provinces of our country from 2010 to 2020 by constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system,and analyzed the national as well as each province new type urbanization development level present situation.First,the Moran index was used to examine the spatial correlation and spatial agglomeration of the new urbanization development level,the spatial econometric model is used to examine the impact of population migration and household registration control on the development level of new urbanization,and the direct and indirect effects are decomposed based on the regression results of the spatial econometric model.Secondly,the medium effect model is used to test the influence channel of the floating population on the development level of the new urbanization,and the influence difference of the individual characteristics of the floating population on the development level of the new urbanization is tested,the threshold model is used to test the threshold effect of household registration control in the impact of population mobility on the new urbanization.The results show that:(1)the reform of household registration system has gone through four stages:initial formation,strengthening,relaxation,and thorough exploration,but the current reform of household registration system has only reformed its dual attributes;The reform of rights and interests distribution system and social welfare system of urban and rural residents attached to it still needs to be deepened.(2)the scale of the floating population in our country is increasing year by year,the floating population is distributed in the eastern part of China,the high-skilled floating population mainly flows to the eastern part,the floating population is still dominated by the younger generation,and the reasons for the floating population are diversified,but mainly for work and employment.(3)in terms of the average development level of new-type urbanization in various provinces,the development level of new-type urbanization in China is constantly rising,and its growth rate is gradually slowing down.The development level of new-type urbanization is obviously different in different regions.The development of new-type urbanization in the east is the best,followed by the Central Region,and the western region is relatively poor.According to the Ellipse distribution chart of standard deviation,the center of gravity of new urbanization development shifts from northeast to southwest.The absolute difference and relative difference of the new urbanization development among the provinces show a growing trend,and the trend of decreasing gradually appears in recent years.The coordinated development of each sub-system of new-type urbanization in each province has been improved continuously,but the regional difference is big,the regional development is not balanced.(4)the development level of new-type urbanization in each province showed positive spatial correlation,and the clustering characteristics were obvious,mainly showing high-high clustering(H-H type)and low-low clustering(L-L Type).The increase of population inflow scale and the relaxation of household registration control can promote the development of new urbanization,and the interaction coefficient between household registration control and population movement is significantly positive,that is,the relaxation of household registration control can strengthen the role of population mobility in promoting the development of new urbanization.This paper analyzes the spatial effects of population mobility and household registration control on the development of new urbanization,and finds that population mobility not only promotes the development of local new urbanization,but also promotes the development of new urbanization,at the same time,it can pull the development of new-type urbanization in the surrounding areas.Household registration control has a similar effect,that is,the reduction of the difficulty of local Hukou on the local and surrounding areas of the new urbanization development has a role to promote.(5)from the demand side,population mobility promotes the governments in the places of inflow to increase general public expenditure,and promotes the development level of new-type urbanization by enlarging the market scale of the places of inflow,and these two mediating effects show as complete mediating effects.The floating population can promote the development of new-type urbanization by optimizing the employment structure in the inflow area,and this kind of intermediary effect shows as part of intermediary effect.The influence of the floating population on the new-type urbanization has the differences of individual living will,educational level and age of the floating population.In the meantime,the gender,Hukou type,marital status,whether the spouses live together or not,whether the children live together or not,whether they move across provinces,whether they move alone or not,and the reasons of the floating population are all the important reasons that lead to the differences of the floating population in the development of new urbanization.(6)there is a significant single threshold effect of household registration control in the impact of population mobility on the new type of urbanization.When the degree of household registration control is below the threshold,that is,when the difficulty of establishing a household is relatively high,the impact coefficient of population mobility on the level of new urbanization is 0.589,and the impact coefficient of population mobility on the level of new urbanization is 0.987 when the degree of household registration control cross the threshold,that is,the difficulty of household registration is further reduced.Then the robustness test was performed by replacing the measures of the explained variables and eliminating the extreme values,which supported the robustness of the baseline threshold regression results.Based on the above analysis and conclusions,the thesis draws the following policy implications:(1)to accelerate the transformation of economic development mode to foster new economic drivers,to ensure the employment of floating population to enable the construction of a new type of urbanization.(2)strengthen the provision of government public services and improve the quality of new urbanization.(3)rational industrial distribution,orderly guide the floating population to settle in cities and towns,promote the construction of new urbanization.(4)deepening the reform of the household registration system,ensuring the needs of the floating population to settle down,and showing the human-oriented nature of the emerging urbanization.(5)promoting the construction of new-type urbanization and improving the quality of new-type urbanization. |
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