Construction And Prediction Research Of Green Development Performance Index Of Chinese Industrial Enterprises

Green development has become a significant strategy of our high-quality economic development,industry as a pillar industry of national economy,has not only promoted the economic development,but also brought great threats to green development.As recipients and feed backs of policies,enterprises have an important impact on the process of green development.However,the current research on green development mainly focuses on macro subjects,and there are few studies on the measurement of green development level of industrial enterprises.Therefore,it is of great significance to construct a scientific and rational performance system of industrial enterprises green development.At the same time,with the increasing uncertainty of social development,external shock also has a huge impact on the promotion of green development of enterprises.In view of this,this thesis proposes to construct the green development performance index of industrial enterprises by using the Functional Data Analysis(FDA)and dynamic entropy weight method,and on this basis,forecast the index.First,based on the theory of enterprise green development performance,the green development performance system of industrial enterprises is constructed from four aspects: economic performance,social performance,environmental performance and innovation performance.Using the functional dynamic entropy weight method to simulate the index,and analyzing the index attribute,fluctuation trend and performance level.Second,on the basis of index simulation,classified enterprises,and analyzed from the perspectives of weight sensitivity,external impact sensitivity,regional differences and industry differences.Third,forecast the future fluctuation trend of the green development performance of industrial enterprises,and compare the consistency of the forecast trend of different forecasting methods.The thesis draws the following conclusions: First,from the index characteristics,the green development performance index of industrial enterprises shows an overall upward trend,and value itself is not meaningful.By comparing the value of different time points,the green development level of industrial enterprises can be analyzed.Second,from the perspective of performance level,the weight level and development level of social performance are the highest,and the fluctuation range is[0.3-0.5] and [0.2-0.4],respectively,which have the greatest impact on the index.Economic performance and innovation performance have the lowest weight and index fitting level which have little influence on the index.Thirdly,from the regional dimension,enterprises are divided into East,middle and west,in which the western region has the highest development level and the eastern region the lowest.There is no significant difference between the green development performance index of industrial enterprises in each region.Fourthly,from the perspective of industry,the list of the top 20 enterprises is relatively stable.Among them,the chemical industry,non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry have a higher level of green development,and state-owned enterprises have a better effect on the corresponding policies.Fifth,the overall level of green development of industrial enterprises is sensitive to changes in external shocks and is affected by policy changes for a longer period of time;driven industrial enterprises are not insensitive and insensitive to external shocks and are affected by market shocks for a longer period of time.Sixth,the green development level of industrial enterprises of our country in the future is gradually increasing,and the upper limit is affected by driven industrial enterprises,while the lower limit is mainly affected by non-driven industrial enterprises.Based on the above conclusions,the thesis argues that Chinese policy formulation and release should have continuity and direction,strengthen the impact of economic development on green development,and favor the driven industrial enterprises.At the same time,enterprises should promote technological innovation and development,establish a long-term development strategy,improve their own systems and enhance the ability to resist risks.There are 24 figures,6 tables and 96 references in this thesis.