| As one of the symbols of the rapid development of the national economy and the continuous improvement of the modernization level,urban agglomeration is the key development carrier to promote the new urbanization and high-quality development,and also the leading region for the integrated development of national major regional strategies.However,with the rapid development of urban agglomeration,various uncertainties and disturbances have increased rapidly,and many unknown risks are intertwined.When faced with multiple threats caused by acute impacts such as natural disasters and man-made interference,and chronic pressures such as energy shortage and climate change,if the internal structure of urban agglomeration is difficult to stabilize,and the response and control ability to cope with risks is insufficient,it is easy to aggravate the instability and uncertainty of urban agglomeration development,and even seriously threaten the security of urban human settlements and urban ecological security.How to maintain the normal operation of urban agglomeration in the face of many unpredictable risks and challenges has become a new issue that needs to be studied in relevant disciplines.As an expression of the adaptability,recovery and regeneration ability of the urban system in response to various uncertain risks,urban resilience is an effective way to normalize urban risk management and emergency management,and has become an important development direction of urban agglomeration construction.Improving urban resilience is not only an important embodiment of the high-quality urban development,but also an important content of the regional integration development of typical urban agglomeration.Studying the urban resilience of typical urban agglomeration has important research value and representative significance.This paper summarizes the research results and relevant theoretical basis of urban resilience at home and abroad,and sorts out the development logic of urban resilience.Focusing on the regional construction of the three typical urban agglomerations in China,namely the Beijing Tianjin Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,and Pearl River Delta,this paper aim to understand the current development characteristics of each urban agglomeration.Combined with the connotation and characteristics of urban resilience in urban agglomerations,the evaluation index system of urban resilience is constructed,and comprehensive evaluation research is conducted from dimensions such as resilience measurement,temporal evolution,spatial evolution,and obstacle factors.Specifically,the improved entropy method is used to measure the urban resilience level of typical urban agglomerations in China from 2008 to 2021,the kernel density estimation method and the α and β convergence model are used to analyze the temporal evolution characteristics,the Thiel index method and the spatial autocorrelation model are used to analyze the spatial evolution characteristics,and the obstacles model is used to explore the factors hindering the development of urban resilience,and the improvement of urban resilience of urban agglomerations is summarized.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: First,the overall urban resilience of the three major urban agglomerations shows a steady growth trend,and the growth rate is characterized by "high low high",the regional differences in urban resilience have convergence trends,and there are obvious differentiation characteristics of subsystem resilience.Most of the prefecture-level cities in each urban agglomeration are at a medium and low level.As time goes by,the number of high-tenacity cities is increasing,gradually forming the evolution trend of "low concentration-high convergence";Second,during the study period,the urban resilience of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities showed a spatial distribution pattern of "higher in the middle,gradually decreasing to the south,and the lowest in the north",the urban resilience of Yangtze River Delta showed a distribution pattern of "higher on the eastern coast and gradually decreasing towards the west",and the urban resilience of the Pearl River Delta showed a distribution pattern of "higher in the central and southern parts and decreasing in all directions".The spatial distribution of subsystems varies with the development degree of different urban agglomerations.The imbalance within urban agglomerations is the main reason for the overall difference in urban resilience of typical urban agglomerations in China.The BeijingTianjin-Hebei region and the Yangtze River Delta show significant spatial positive correlation aggregation on the whole,while the Pearl River Delta only has a significant clustering effect in a few years;Third,during the research period,the urban economic system is the primary obstacle system of the three major urban agglomerations in China,but the development trend of the obstacle degree of the subsystem has regional differences.Local general public budget revenue has become the first obstacle factor of the three major urban agglomerations,and the main obstacle factor has shifted from the economic aspect to the economic-socialecological-facility aspect.Based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions: First,optimize the regional economic industrial layout and promote the economic resilience and high-quality development of urban agglomeration;Second,promote the full coverage of public service supply,support and improve the social resilience of urban agglomeration;Third,improve the regional ecological compensation mechanism and continue to promote the ecological resilience construction of urban agglomeration;Fourth,coordinate the construction of the infrastructure system,and consolidate and promote the resilient development of urban agglomeration facilities;Fifth,actively carry out mutual assistance and cooperation between governments to promote the coordinated development of resilience in urban agglomeration.This paper is helpful for relevant departments to formulate targeted development policies for resilient cities,promote the orderly development of resilient cities,and has positive reference significance for enhancing the security and endogenous development capacity of urban agglomerations and optimizing the spatial pattern of regional integration of urban agglomerations. |
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