Study On The Influence Of Aging Population On Classified Commodity Export

With the rapid growth of the global economy,the declining fertility intentions of the young population,alongside the trend towards longer life expectancy,will result in countries around the world facing the challenge of an ageing population.Ageing has a direct impact on the quantity and quality of factor supply,as well as changing consumption preferences and saving habits,affecting the relative and absolute abundance of labour and capital factors in a country.According to the UN’s definition,China entered an ageing population society as early as 2000.The issue of population ageing in China has become a hot topic,whether it is the delayed retirement age mentioned in the 14 th Five-Year Plan this year or the liberalisation of the three-child policy mentioned in the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China,all of which are closely related to the issue of population ageing in China.The effect of the ageing population on the quality and quantity of labour supply and the quantity of capital supply has a direct impact on China’s exports of labour-and capital-intensive goods.Traditionally,most studies have looked at the impact of population ageing on China’s export comparative advantage and the structure of export commodities in terms of the proportion of exports of labour-and capital-intensive goods,but few studies have directly examined the different impacts of population ageing on exports of labour-and capital-intensive goods respectively.This paper empirically analyses the different effects of ageing on China’s exports of labour-and capital-intensive goods based on provincial and municipal population and commodity export data,and on this basis investigates the moderating effect of human capital levels on this effect.The innovation of this paper is that instead of studying the proportion of exports of labour and capital-intensive goods as a whole,we study the different effects on the absolute value of exports of labour and capital-intensive goods based on panel data at the provincial level in China,which has important implications for the improvement of one of the three driving forces of China,"exports",in the context of population ageing." in the context of population ageing;furthermore,in studying the moderating role of human capital,this article constructs an improved human capital indicator based on the current situation of education in China and investigates its moderating role,which is of guidance in making policy recommendations on how to strengthen the positive impact of population ageing on commodity exports.The article is divided into six parts: Chapter 1 is the introduction,which introduces the background and significance of this paper,the content and framework of the study,and the innovations and shortcomings.Chapter 2 is a literature review,which summarises the definition and measurement of human capital,the impact of population ageing on the international trade balance,the impact of population ageing on the structure of international trade,and the moderating effect of education on the impact of population ageing on trade.Chapter 3 presents the theoretical basis of the paper,mainly introducing the measurement of human capital indicators,the mechanism of the impact of population ageing on the export of capital-intensive and labour-intensive products,the theory of the moderating effect of education on the impact of population ageing on export trade,and finally the two hypotheses of the paper.Chapter 4 presents the design of the empirical study.Data from 29 provinces and cities in China excluding Tibet and Chongqing from 2010 to 2020 are selected,and a benchmark regression model is established,with labour and capital-intensive goods as the explanatory variables,population ageing indicators as the explanatory variables,and economic growth rate,foreign direct investment,R&D investment and trade openness as the control variables,to construct inter-provincial panel data to empirically Analyse the impact of inter-provincial demographic changes in China on exports of categorised goods(labour-intensive goods and capital-intensive goods).Secondly,an interaction model with human capital and population ageing multipliers is developed to empirically analyse the moderating effect of the human capital values measured in this paper on the impact of population ageing on the exports of the two categories of goods.Chapter 5 presents the analysis of the empirical findings.Chapter6 deals with policies and recommendations.Based on the results of the empirical study,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations for promoting China’s exports of labour-and capital-intensive goods.The conclusions of this paper are: firstly,the theoretical and empirical results show that the increase in population ageing has a significant boosting effect on both labour and capital-intensive goods in China,and the coefficient of impact on capital-intensive goods exports is greater.Second,the theoretical and empirical analyses find that an improved level of human capital significantly strengthens the boosting effect of population ageing on exports of both labour-and capital-intensive goods.