The Impact Of Population Mobility On Housing Price

According to the data of the Seventh National Census in 2021,the total migration in 2020 has reached 370 million,increase by 69.73% compared with the Sixth National Census in 2010.Such a huge number of migrations will have a significant impact on China’s social and economic development,and the trend of migration is gradually affecting China’s urban economic pattern.By 2020,China has 16 cities with a population of more than 10 million,91 cities with a population of more than 5 million,and nearly 30 cities with average real estate price of more than 10,000.Population is the basis of economic activities.With the large-scale flow of China’s population,major urban agglomerations have been gradually formed,and the urban real estate industry has also ushered in great leap forward development.As the most concerned topic of people,the real estate price is closely related to migration.Under the current new population pattern,re-understanding and studying the impact of migration on real estate prices will help the government and real estate enterprises to re-layout and plan,is of great significance to solve this important livelihood problem.This thesis establishs the panel data model through the panel data of 70 large and medium-sized cities from 2005 to 2019,and uses the fixed effect model for empirical analysis to reveal the impact of migration on urban real estate price.Firstly,it makes a qualitative analysis on the current situation of migration and real estate price respectively.Secondly,it analyzes how they affect the real estate price from many factors,uses the real estate price as the explained variable,uses the stock and flow of migration as the explanatory variable,and uses GDP3,fiscal expenditure,foreign direct investment,the completed amount of estate investment and DPI as control variables for empirical analysis.Further through the difference test of geographical division of cities(East,Central and West)and population flow direction division(net inflow and net outflow),and finally through the endogenous test of 2SLS and GMM.The final empirical results of this thesis are as follows:1.Migration has a significant impact on the real estate price,in which the stock of migration has a positive impact on the real estate price,and the flow of migration has a negative impact on the real estate price.The economic explanation of the empirical results is that the migrations want to settle down in a new city,and the demand for real estate is just demand.The more migrations,the higher the demand for real estate.which will lead to the shortage of real estate and the rise of real estate price.The flow of migration is the real-time change of floating population in the city,which has great volatility.There are several choices for migrations: 1.buy real estate,but the purchasing power is affected by the restriction policy,income level,living environment and other factors.Therefore,most migrations will not choose to buy real estate at the first time in the city;2.Renting a house,It’s the initial choice for most of the migrations.With the progress of their work and life,they will further choose to buy a house,rent a house for a long time,or leave;3.Leaving,due to the pressure of urban life,some migrations will choose to leave.This trend is obviously under the background of high real estate prices and great pressure of life in big cities in recent years,and even the saying of "fleeing Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou" appears.The migration left behind in the flow of migration is promising to live for a long time,and the accumulated demand for real estate purchase is also high.Therefore,the stock of migration index will significantly affect the supply and demand structure of the real estate market.For the index of flow of migration,although the stock of migration is the accumulation result of increment,its impact on real estate price lags.In a short time,the influx of too many migrations will cause the false prosperity of the real estate market,with more inquiries and less transactions,which will trigger the real estate regulation and control,but inhibit the real estate price in a short period.2.Through the differential analysis of different regions(Eastern,Central and Western regions),it concluded that the stock of migration has a significant positive impact on housing prices in the Eastern region,but not in the Central and Western regions;Through the classification and comparison of cities with net inflow and net outflow migration,it concluded that the stock of migration has a significant positive impact on net inflow cities,but not in net outflow cities.According to the research results,it is suggested that local governments should reasonably formulate population policies according to the migration trend,guide the rational distribution of population,balance the impact of migration on real estate prices through industrial structure adjustment and urban planning,and properly solve the people’s housing demand.