Impacts Of The Real Estate Price On The Population Migration

With the development of economy and the reform of the household registration system, the population migration flow in China will become more and more frequent. Therefore, factors affecting the population migration has become a hot spot for Chinese scholars to explore. Since the population migration is concerned with the housing problem, the impact of real estate price on population migration is particularly important.In this paper, the model of spacial mutual restrain is adopted to make an empirical analysis of 31 provinces and cities in China through the data of 1998-2012. Then GM(1,1)model and BP neural network model are used to forecast the related data in 2014-2018 and estimate the data of the impact of real estate prices on population migration from 2013 to 2018.The results are as follows:(1) During the period of 1998-2012, impacts of real estate prices on the population migration are not obvious. The relatively low housing price in central and western regions have become a reverse driving force of population relocation. However, economic income plays a more significant role in population relocation.(2) On the contrary, impacts of real estate prices on the population immigration are obvious during this period. The real estate price is an important factor affecting the immigration area. Usually, the per capita income in areas with high housing prices is high, too. So more people are attracted to these regions.(3) During the period of 2013-2018, population in China will mainly flows to the East. However, the central region will become another force to attract populations, especially in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan.(4) During the period of 1998-2012, populations in central and western regions mainly flow to the East: the eastern region is high housing prices with high inflow and high housing prices with low outflow; the central area is moderate housing prices with moderate inflow and moderate housing prices with relatively high outflow; the western area is low housing prices with low inflow and low housing prices with high outflow.(5) distance plays a vital role in the population migration. In general, population migration is more frequent in areas with relatively close distance, and vice versa.According to the research, the following suggestions are put forward. Firstly, strengthen the research on the interaction between real estate prices and population migration. Secondly, strengthen regional exchange and cooperation and grasp the general trend of population movement. Thirdly, strengthen the construction of affordable housing. Fourthly, improve the traffic network. Finally, adjust the land supply structure and stabilize the real estate price.