The Quality Effect Of Economic Development On The Uncertainty Of Transfer Payment

Since the reform and opening up,the market economic system has been gradually established in my country.In the process of adapting to economic globalization,China is facing an increasingly complex market environment.The promulgation of various macro-control policies,especially fiscal and taxation policies,has brought problems to the macro economy.Among them,the uncertainty of transfer payment has the most extensive influence,especially special transfer payment,which accounts for a relatively high proportion of the total transfer payment and has a strong uncertainty,so it has become the focus of research.At this stage,our country is going through a new transition period of economic development,and attaches more importance to the quality of economic development.This is because the requirements of high-quality development are more comprehensive,and guided by innovative development,coordinated development,green development,open development,and shared development,it makes the continuous driving force of economic development stronger,and also enables the fruits of economic development to benefit all residents.Therefore,this article chooses to stand from the perspective of the quality of economic development,from the provincial and municipal levels,to discuss the impact of the uncertainty of intergovernmental transfer payment on the quality of economic development in its jurisdiction and the mechanism.The literature review found that scholars have conducted in-depth studies on the uncertainty of economic policy,the quality of economic development,and the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and economic growth.However,few scholars discuss the impact of the uncertainty of intergovernmental transfer payments on the quality of economic development in their jurisdictions and its mechanism.Moreover,the transfer payment system with Chinese characteristics plays a significant role in creating China’s "economic growth miracle",but its impact on the quality of economic development is a question that needs to be answered urgently.Therefore,this article chooses to study the impact of the uncertainty of intergovernmental transfer payment on the quality of economic development in its jurisdiction and its mechanism,which is of great significance.To this end,this paper measures the uncertainty of transfer payment and its economic development quality indicators at the level of 31 provinces and 282prefecture-level cities in China,and continue to use the fixed effects model,using empirical methods to analyze the relationship between the uncertainty of intergovernmental transfer payment and the quality of economic development in the jurisdiction and its impact mechanism.The research results show that when provincial governments and prefecture-level city governments face the uncertainty of transfer payment,the economic development quality of their jurisdictions will be significantly negatively impacted,and prefecture-level city governments will be more strongly negatively impacted.Because it faces greater financial pressure;The heterogeneity analysis found that the uncertainty of general transfer payments and special transfer payments faced by provincial governments and prefecture-level city governments has a significant inhibitory effect on the quality of economic development in the jurisdiction,and the impact is even greater at the prefecture-level city level.However,the uncertainty of tax return has no significant inhibitory effect on the quality of economic development in the jurisdiction;the inhibitory effect of the uncertainty of transfer payment in the eastern region is lower than that of the economically underdeveloped central and western regions,when the level of government drops from the provincial government When I arrived at the prefecture-level city government,this difference became more and more obvious.The analysis of the impact mechanism shows that when the provincial governments and prefecture-level municipal governments face the uncertainty of transfer payment,they will increase the bias of productive fiscal expenditures,thereby alleviating fiscal pressures,thereby reducing the quality of economic development in their jurisdictions.Based on the results of the above research,this article puts forward three policy recommendations.The first is to further improve the transfer payment distribution system.In terms of project approval,for major projects involving culture,education,science and health that can improve the quality of economic development,it is necessary to speed up the approval and focus on support,and guide more special transfer payment funds to flow into these areas.The second is to promote local fiscal revenue and reduce expenditures,and solve the problem of insufficient local government revenue from the source,including measures such as accelerating the collection of new local taxes represented by real estate tax,actively supporting the development of local enterprises,and promoting the transformation of urban investment enterprises.The third is to further optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure,while scientifically adjusting the proportion of scale,pay attention to adjusting the flow of funds.In terms of production expenditure,it is necessary to prevent capital from flowing into backward industries,and in terms of service expenditure,it is necessary to guide funds into key areas such as basic education..