The Research Of Property Tax Effect Based On CGE Model

Personal residential property tax is the core link of China’s real estate tax reform.In the 2019 government work report,Premier Li Keqiang pointed out that China needs to deepen the reform of the fiscal and taxation system,improve the local tax system,and steadily promote real estate tax legislation.How to set up a private residential property tax rationally in the real estate tax,which not only stabilizes the local government tax source,but also rationally arranges personal taxes to appropriately balance the income distribution of residents,is a topic worthy of further study.This thesis sorts out the previous academic research on property tax theory,tax system design,property tax impact effects at home and abroad,and draws theoretical support from it.The research tools such as the DID model and the CGE model are comparatively comprehensively analyzed,and the CGE model is selected as the starting point for the research in this thesis.Next,this thesis analyzes the practical experience of the property tax pilot cities,and extracts references that have certain reference significance to other cities.In view of the availability of data and the research characteristics of local colleges and universities,the thesis uses Fujian Province as a sample and analyzes its status quo.Through collecting and processing a large number of regional macroeconomic data,compiling the "Macro Social Accounting Matrix of Fujian Province",on this basis,subdivided commodity accounts,sector accounts,resident accounts and government accounts,and then compiling the "Micro Social Accounting Matrix of Fujian Province".Based on the social accounting matrix as the data basis,combined with research needs to build a CGE model that includes production,income,consumption,system constraints and other modules.And consider the property tax factor in the residents’ expenditure and government income.This thesis sets two macro-closure rules and three scenarios to reflect the impact of property tax policies.The research shows that:(1)The main significance of the property tax should be to optimize the government’s income structure and adjust the income distribution of residents.Comprehensive fiscal revenue,including property tax,that enables local governments to go from a simple transfer of income from land use rights to a stable tax base with a broad tax base.Through simulation analysis of different scenarios,it is believed that the property tax policy can moderately narrow the disposable income gap between urban and rural residents and between different income groups of urban residents.With the progressive property tax rate,it has a greater impact on the disposable income of the high-income group and the middle-high income group.(2)With the closure of Lewis,the imposition of property taxes may reduce the consumption demand of residents,causing the output of some industrial sectors to contract to varying degrees,resulting in a reduction in labor demand and a slight decline in real GDP.As domestic demand decreases,the export output demand of some companies has increased.(3)With the closure of neoclassicism,since the total supply of production factors is fixed,the property tax policy makes it possible for production factors to flow to industrial sectors such as equipment manufacturing and metal processing industries,thereby increasing their output.At the same time,the increase in government investment and consumption and the possible expansion of foreign trade offset the reduction in household consumption,and the impact on the local economy was more moderate.Based on the above analysis,the thesis believes that local governments can appropriately levy property taxes on incremental housing and high-end housing according to local conditions,formulate a reasonable progressive tax system property tax policy,and promote the harmonious development of local economy and society.