Research On Identification Method Of Disruptive Technology Evolution Path Based On Scientific Papers And Patent Data

With the advent of a new round of scientific and technological revolution,technological iterations and industrial changes are taking place rapidly.The interpenetration of technology and the crossover of disciplines make it a challenging and extremely important task to identify the core technology topics in key technology fields,especially disruptive technologies,extract the evolution trajectory of technology and forecast further evolution trends effectively.By reading and sorting out important literature related to disruptive technologies and technology evolution path identification,this thesis firstly discusses and summarizes the limitations of existing research on disruptive technology and technology evolution path identification,finds some problems including such as single data source,insufficient technical semantic information,and citation time lag.Then,based on patent and paper data,a method model for identifying the evolution trajectory of disruptive technologies is proposed.The method model is mainly divided into three parts:The first part is to extract the triple structure in thesis and patent texts using a natural language processing tool,and then to deemphasize and de-noise it,then identify the core technology topic by combining the technology life cycle theory with the technology’s actual growth potential.The second part,based on the recognition results of the core technology topic in the first part,uses a machine-learning algorithm,social network analysis,similarity calculation,etc.,to extract the evolution path of condensation technology at multi-level and multi-angle and realize the trend analysis of technology path.In the third part,to strengthen the prediction of the trend of technology evolution,combining the theory of systematic catastrophe with the analysis of co-occurrence network,the identification method of potentially disruptive technology is proposed.Taking the field of hematopoietic stem cells(HSCs)as an example,this thesis conducted an empirical analysis and found that research on genetic etiology is at the core of this field and that there are significant differences in the focus of patent and scientific papers on HSCs related to technical topics that have not yet formed a uniform evolutionary path.Research on immune system diseases,such as transplant-versus-host diseases,is a potential evolutionary trend in the future.Based on the method model mentioned above,through objective numerical calculation and empirical analysis,this thesis has gradually realized the identification of core technology topics in the field of disruptive technology,the extraction,and condensed technology evolution trajectory,and the prediction of technology evolution trend,scientific and accurate.