Research On The Affect Of Bilateral Exchange Rate Changes On China’s Import And Export Trade Of High-tech Products

Although China is a big manufacturing country,it has been in a state of "big but not strong" for a long time.On the road of exploring high-quality development and building a new pattern of double circulation,it is urgent to develop high-tech industries,Thus,it enhances the economic value growth space of domestic economic cycle development and becomes the new driving force of the new phase of China’s economic growth.At the same a time,in the global division of labor economic operation mode,China also needs to import a lot of foreign high-tech products to help its economic and industrial growth.However,the increasingly complex international environment brings great risks to the gorwth of China’s high-tech industry and the foreign trade of related goods.Foreign trade of hightech products are taken as as the study target in this paper,and considers how China’s high-tech industry can resist risks and develop steadily under the increasingly complex international environment and the test of domestic economy from the perspective of exchange rate.Firstly,this paper reviews the traditional theories of exchange rate and foreign trade,and expounds the transmission system of bilateral exchange rate for high-tech product trade based on price elasticity passage and risk preference passage Then,based on the actual data,this paper analyzes the trade scale,trade commodity structure,trade market structure and its division of work in the international market of high-tech goods.From the study of the state,it can be seen that China’s high-tech products have a certain market competitiveness in the international market,and have gradually become an important part in China’s foreign trade;However,there is a certain imbalance in various technical fields.To examine the above observation,this article takes the panel data of China’s imports and exports of high-tech products from 27 trading countries or regions from 2007 to 2020 as the sample,and makes an empirical study by putting the immobilization affect model.In the empirical part,the first is to study the influence of bilateral exchange rate changes and bilateral exchange rate fluctuations on the foreign trade of high-tech products from the overall level.Second,the heterogeneity analysis is carried out from different income countries and different technical fields,and the 811 sink is changed to the time node for sub sample regression.Third,it further analyzes the role of the technical complexity of the product in resisting exchange rate fluctuations.Fourth,explore the threshold effect of volatility on the trade of high-tech products.The main conclusions of this paper include:(1)Based on the research of price elasticity channel,the depreciation of RMB bilateral real exchange rate can promote the export of high-tech products and inhibit the import of high-tech products;Based on the risk preference channel research,it summarize that the bilateral exchange rate fluctuation has downside affect on the foreign trade of high-tech goods.(2)The impact of bilateral exchange rate changes on different countries and different technological products is heterogeneous.Market-oriented reform of the exchange rate system will help decrease the effect of exchange rates on trade in high-tech products.(3)Improvements in the manufacturing quality and technology content of high-tech products can mitigate the downside of exchange rate fluctuations.(4)When the ranging of the exchange rate is less than the threshold,the depreciation of exchange rate plays a strong part in furtherance of the export of high-tech goods.Finally,this paper puts forward specific strategic suggestions on how to adapt the import and export trade of high-tech products to the changes of bilateral exchange rate:(1)Optimize the exchange rate formation mechanism based on the transmission channel of exchange rate influence and its nonlinear effect.(2)Enrich trading products in the foreign exchange market and assist enterprises to enhance their risk hedging ability.(3)Actively expand the scope of overseas business and carry out more extensive high-tech trade.(4)Diversify the layout of high-tech industrial development and improve the international market competitiveness of products.