Evaluation Of Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity And Its Dynamic Effects In Jilin Province

Land is an important natural resource.As a major agricultural province in my country,Jilin Province can rationally utilize and develop land,study the comprehensive carrying capacity of land,and find out the restrictive factors that restrict the development of Jilin Province’s land carrying capacity,which can provide certain decision-making basis for Jilin Province’s rational planning of land use goals.In addition,this paper breaks the single research on the comprehensive land carrying capacity of previous scholars,and analyzes the comprehensive land carrying capacity more comprehensively and systematically from multiple perspectives.And in the past,scholars have little research on the dynamic influence between endogenous variables from the perspective of time and space.This paper studies the influence mechanism of the endogenous variables of comprehensive land carrying capacity,which can broaden the existing research ideas and applications,in order to achieve sustainable development.Land use and sustainable development provide key practical support.Based on the data from 2003 to 2018,this paper constructs a comprehensive land carrying capacity index system from four aspects: land population,resources and environment,economy,society,and technology and culture,and uses the improved TOPSIS evaluation model to comprehensively evaluate the comprehensive land carrying capacity of Jilin Province.,using the obstacle degree model to diagnose the obstacle factors in different regions of Jilin Province.Secondly,the coordinated development degree of the comprehensive land carrying capacity in different regions is studied by using the coupling coordination model,and finally the dynamic impact effect of the comprehensive land carrying capacity in Jilin Province is studied by using the panel vector autoregressive model(PVAR).research shows:(1)The overall change trend of the comprehensive land carrying capacity in various regions of Jilin Province presents an inverted "U" shape change.Judging from the change trend of the comprehensive land carrying capacity subsystem,the land population carrying capacity shows an upward trend first and then a downward trend,the economic and social carrying capacity and the scientific and technological and cultural carrying capacity show an overall upward trend,and the resource and environmental carrying capacity shows a stable trend as a whole.(2)It can be seen from the results of the obstacle degree calculated by the obstacle degree model that,in general,the land population system has the largest obstacle degree,and the science and technology culture system has the smallest obstacle degree.In addition,the biggest obstacle factors affecting land carrying capacity are as follows: the biggest obstacle factor in Siping,Songyuan and Baicheng cities is the per capita arable land area,the biggest obstacle factor in Yanbian and Baishan cities is the per capita population,and the largest obstacle factor in Jilin City and Tonghua City The obstacle factor is the comprehensive utilization rate of general solid waste.The biggest obstacle factors in Liaoyuan City and Changchun City are the population at the end of the year and the internal expenditure of R&D funds.(3)According to the evaluation results of the coupling coordination degree calculated by the coupling coordination degree model,it can be seen that the coupling degree change curve and the coupling coordination degree change curve both show an inverted U-shaped trend.Judging from the coupling degree results,Changchun and Songyuan are generally in a high-level coupling state,and other regions are in a running-in state;from the coupling coordination degree results,each region still has a certain distance from high-quality coordination.Obviously,the coupling effect between the internal systems is strong,but the degree of coordination is obviously still in the initial stage,and the internal operation state of the comprehensive land carrying capacity system is relatively poor.(4)According to the impulse response results,the impact of resources,environment and socio-economic carrying capacity can greatly improve the level and duration of population carrying capacity;The impact of environmental carrying capacity is more prominent;in the short term,changes in land and population carrying capacity have a certain impact on the development of social and economic carrying capacity;the impact of changes in economic and social carrying capacity on the growth of scientific and technological and cultural carrying capacity has a decisive long-term impact.Influence;the carrying capacity of each subsystem is significantly affected by its own short-term.