Impact Of Agricultural Support Policy On Carbon Emissions Embodied In China’s Agricultural Products Exports

Since 2000,China’s support for agriculture has been increasing,the export volume of agricultural products has also increased year by year,and the carbon emissions embodied in China’s agricultural products exports are also expanding.As the second largest source of carbon emission,after the "double carbon" goal from 2030 to 2060 is put forward,the emission reduction task of agriculture has become an indispensable part of China’s carbon emission reduction.Agricultural support policies will have an impact on the production technology,production scale and structure of China’s agricultural products,and then affect the carbon emissions embodied in China’s agricultural products exports,a country’s exports mean that it bears the carbon emissions embodied in the importing country.This study makes an empirical analysis on impact of agricultural support policy on carbon emissions embodied in China’s agricultural products exports and looks for the impact path,hoping to provide theoretical basis and data support for China to adjust agricultural support policies to achieve the "double carbon" goal on schedule.Firstly,based on the OECD database,this paper describes different types of agricultural support policies in China and uses the non competitive input-output method to calculate the carbon emissions embodied in China’s agricultural products exports;Secondly,this study builds multiple linear regression and panel regression models to empirically study the impact of agricultural support policies on the implied carbon of China’s agricultural export trade,and analyzes the impact differences of different agricultural support policies and product heterogeneity;Finally,with the help of exponential decomposition method and partial least squares path analysis model,this study analyzes the impact path of different agricultural support policies on the implied carbon of China’s agricultural export trade.The conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)The regression results show that total support,producer support and general production service support all promote the carbon emissions embodied in China’s agricultural products exports and have different effects,while market price support can reduce the carbon emissions embodied in China’s agricultural products exports.Among them,the market price support of grain and oil agricultural products is relatively strong.(2)The results of partial least squares path analysis model show that producer support and general production service support can significantly reduce the carbon emissions embodied in China’s agricultural products exports by promoting the development of agricultural science and technology,and general production service support can also significantly reduce the carbon emissions embodied in China’s agricultural products exports by improving the structural effect.According to the above research conclusions,this study makes some suggestions from the following aspects.Adjusting the structure of agricultural support policies,promoting the low-carbon of agricultural production mode and actively supervising the embodied carbon emission of agriculture.The main innovations of the study are as follows:(1)This study puts China’s agricultural support policies and the carbon emissions embodied in China’s agricultural products exports under the same framework and identify the impact of different agricultural support policies on the carbon emissions embodied in China’s agricultural products exports.(2)This study uses partial least squares path model to determine the impact path of different agricultural support policies on carbon emissions from China’s agricultural products exports.