Spatial-temporal Evolution And Spillover Effects Of Tourism Flows In Urban Agglomerations Of The Yangtze River Economic Belt

The development of tourism plays a vital role in promoting China’s economic development.With its superior location conditions and abundant natural and cultural resources,the Yangtze River Economic Belt has become an important support for China’s tourism economy.However,due to the different geographical locations and economic development levels in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,different cities have different physical infrastructure conditions such as tourism resource endowment,transportation infrastructure and market size.As a result,different regions have different levels of attraction to tourists,and the development of tourism is not balanced.In order to the sustainable development of tourism in the Yangtze river economic belt balance,need tourist cities in the Yangtze river economic belt flow visualization analysis and spatial econometric model construction,further analysis of tourist flow and its influencing factors of spatial spillover effects,put forward the corresponding policy recommendations,the feasibility of the narrow the gap between the Yangtze river economic belt from city to city tourism flow.In this thesis,71 prefecture-level cities and two municipalities(Shanghai and Chongqing)included in the three major urban agglomerations of the Yangtze River Economic Belt are taken as the research objects,and their spatio-temporal differentiation and spatial spillover effects are studied.Panel data from 2010 to 2018 are selected for research and analysis.Firstly,the quantitative characteristics and spatial distribution characteristics of the overall tourism flow in the Yangtze River Economic Belt urban agglomeration are analyzed.Secondly,the spatial correlation of the overall tourism flow is tested to determine the spatial spillover effect between urban agglomerations and cities.Then,through a series of tests,the SDM model with spatial fixed effect is selected to analyze the spatial spillover effect of the overall tourism flow and seven independent variables in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Then,considering the unbalanced development of tourism in urban agglomerations,the tourism flows in the three urban agglomerations are analyzed by sample regression,and the influencing factors that can drive the development of tourism flows in urban agglomerations are explored.The advantages of the development of tourism flows in urban agglomerations are given full play to make up for the shortcomings of tourism development in urban agglomerations.Finally,combined with the results of global and local regression,feasible policy suggestions are put forward.The study reached the following conclusions:(1)The characteristics of quantity and spatio-temporal differentiation show that domestic tourism flows in the Yangtze River Economic Belt show a trend of fluctuation and rise,and the tourism development prospect is good.However,the proportion of tourism flows in the three urban agglomerations in the overall tourism flows of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and their spatial distribution pattern show that the development level of tourism flows in the three urban agglomerations is not balanced,and there are different levels of core-edge evolution characteristics.(2)The spatial autocorrelation test of the overall tourism flow and regional tourism flow in the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows that the overall global Moran index of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is negative.Chengdu-chongqing urban agglomeration and urban agglomeration in the middle reach of Yangtze river tourism flow global moran index is negative,Yangtze river delta urban agglomerations tourism flow global moran index is positive,the Yangtze river,the middle city of the Yangtze river economic belt is widening the whole tourist flow space gap,the Yangtze river downstream of the overall tourism flow balanced development of the Yangtze river economic belt driving effects,However,the radiation capacity of its core cities is limited and needs to be further strengthened.(3)Spatial econometrics is used for empirical analysis of whole and part.The spatial regression analysis of the overall tourism flow in the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows that the overall tourism flow is most positively affected by market size and its spillover effect,followed by the promotion effect of economic development level and tourism resource endowment.At the same time,we should also pay attention to the competition effect and corridor effect generated by the region with strong tourism reception capacity to other regions.Then,the three urban agglomerations are divided into sample regression.Although the regression coefficients of influencing factors of tourism flow in the three urban agglomerations are quite different,the positive spillover effect of market size is the most obvious in promoting tourism flow among cities and urban agglomerations.At the same time,the direct effect and indirect effect of each urban agglomeration were compared horizontally,which showed that the spillover effect was greater than the direct effect,indicating that paying attention to the spillover effect of each variable is the key to the balanced development of tourism flow in urban agglomeration.