Analysis On The Fluctuation Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of China’s Cotton Spot Price

For a long time,China has been a major cotton producer,consumer and importer in the world.In 2020,China’s cotton production,consumption and import accounted for 25.41%,33.7%and 24.7%of the world’s GDP respectively.At the beginning of 2020,the new crown outbreak broke out,the domestic economic operation pressure was greater,and the domestic cotton demand decreased,which led to the decline of cotton prices.However,with the recovery of the new crown and the recovery of the economic situation,cotton prices began to rise,forming a V reversal trend.At the beginning of 2021,the continuous fermentation of Xinjiang cotton incident caused great attention to the cotton industry in China.Cotton has the longest industrial chain among China’s field cash crops,involving many industries such as production,processing and circulation.Due to the rapid development of China’s textile industry,cotton,as an important raw material,has been in a state of imbalance between supply and demand in the domestic market for a long time,and is affected by China’s relevant policies and the international cotton market,Many factors have led to drastic fluctuations in China’s cotton price in recent years,and it is this drastic fluctuation and unpredictability that has brought unpredictable risks to the whole cotton industry chain in China.Based on the current situation of unbalanced supply and demand and sharp price fluctuation in China’s cotton market,the research on the characteristics of China’s cotton spot price fluctuation and the influencing factors of China’s cotton spot price fluctuation will help to ensure China’s domestic cotton supply and meet China’s domestic cotton flower demand.Enhance China’s voice in the world cotton market and enhance the stability of China’s cotton market in response to risk events.China’s cotton spot price fluctuation is affected by internal and external factors.Based on this,this study first makes a theoretical analysis on the influencing factors of China’s cotton spot price fluctuation and explores its internal mechanism,and then makes a comparative analysis with the current situation of the international cotton market from the perspective of output,planting area,consumption,import and export,And analyze the change of cotton spot price in China.Accordingly,using the empirical analysis method and using the relevant data of China’s cotton spot price from 2010 to 2020,this paper constructs arch model to study the fluctuation characteristics of China’s cotton spot price,and constructs a multiple linear regression model to analyze the influencing factors of China’s cotton spot price fluctuation,mainly from supply,demand,industrial policy This paper analyzes the fluctuation of China’s cotton spot from the perspectives of monetary policy and substitutes.The results show that China’s cotton spot price has obvious clustering and asymmetry characteristics,and does not have the risk return characteristics of "high risk and high return",and the volatility of China’s cotton spot price caused by price decline information is greater than that caused by price rise.At the same time,it is found that the international spot price of cotton,the export quantity of cotton yarn,the temporary collection and storage policy of cotton,the broad money supply,the Shanghai interbank offered rate,the quantity of imported polyester and China’s cotton futures price have a significant impact on the fluctuation of China’s cotton spot price.Considering the current situation of China’s cotton market as a whole,combined with the empirical analysis results of this study,this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the perspectives of ensuring China’s cotton supply,demand and policy.The innovation of this paper is that when measuring monetary policy,we comprehensively consider the money supply and interest rate,and use the Shanghai interbank offered rate as the proxy index of interest rate;Discussing its impact on the fluctuation of China’s cotton spot price from the perspective of monetary policy is a beneficial exploration to ensure the normal fluctuation of China’s cotton spot price.