Multi-model Comparative Analysis Of The Influencing Factors Of Tourism Economy In Six Provinces In Central China And Its Empirical Research

There are marked differences in the economic development of tourism in the various regions of China.The six central provinces are facing the impact and threat of the east and west in the development of tourism and are at a competitive disadvantage.With the implementation of the ’Rise of Central China’ strategy and the implementation of the Central Region Tourism Development Strategy,the tourism industry in the Central Region has been developing healthily and rapidly.Based on the above background,the main research of this paper is as follows.Firstly,based on the literature on the influencing factors of tourism at home and abroad,seven indicators,namely the number of domestic tourists,GDP,the added value of the transportation industry,foreign exchange earnings from tourism,total imports and exports,total retail sales of social consumer goods and general public budget revenue,were selected as the factors affecting the development of tourism in the central region,and the corresponding characteristics and patterns were analyzedSecondly,the data of six central provinces from 2010 to 2018 were selected to study the statistics of tourism revenue in six central provinces,seven indicators were selected to study the tourism development in the central region,in order to reduce the correlation between these indicators,the LASSO method was used to screen the factors influencing the statistics of tourism revenue in six central provinces,removing the factors with insignificant influence and leaving the factors with significant influence,On this basis,a spatial econometric analysis was carried out for the six central provinces,and by building a spatial model of the variables corresponding to the significant factors affecting tourism income that were screened out,a strong interoperability correlation was obtained between different provinces,and then corresponding suggestions were provided for the development of tourism statistics in the six central provinces based on the characteristics of the main influencing factors and the interoperability correlation between individual provinces.Thirdly,using the effective variables screened out in Chapter 4,GM(1,1)model and ALASSO-BP neural network model were established to forecast and analyze the tourism economy of six central provinces,and by analyzing and comparing the prediction results and effects of the two,a method for forecasting the tourism economy of six central provinces was formed.Finally,by summarising and collating,this paper argues that in the strategic context of the rise of central China,the degree of regional economic ties in the central region needs to be further improved,not only in terms of total output value but also to maintain the coordinated development of all elements.In the analysis and study of the spatial pattern of tourism economic development in the six central provinces,this paper also puts forward a new concept,namely"the formation of eight tourism circles with regional tourism in the six provinces as the central node,with important traffic arteries as the link,spreading to the whole region’s tourism economic development",through the analysis of the tourism market in each province,as well as the positioning of the tourism image of each region in line with local characteristics,the implementation of the By analyzing the tourism market in each province and positioning the tourism image of each region in line with local characteristics,different government marketing strategies are implemented.