Research On Closed-Loop Supply Chain Network Considering Uncertain Demand And Risk Attitude

Facing the problems of environmental pollution and depletion of natural resources,enterprises pay more and more attention to recycling and fulfill their social responsibilities through recycling and processing.The closed-loop supply chain composed of forward and reverse supply chains meets the demands of enterprises to strengthen recycling,increase green equipment in the forward supply chain to increase the greenness of products,and consider product returns and recycling in the reverse supply chain.These measures Environmental problems can be alleviated to a certain extent.At the same time,the uncertainty of some indicators may exist in each link of the supply chain in the enterprise,and these uncertain factors increase the management complexity of the closed-loop supply chain.Under the trend of supply chain globalization,the complexity of the supply chain increases the risk and vulnerability of the supply chain.Therefore,it is necessary for enterprises to consider the opportunities and losses caused by the risk of supply chain fluctuations when making decisions.Even if different enterprise decision makers face the same supply chain,if they have different risk attitudes and adopt different risk management methods,the acceptance and benefits of products in the market will be different.Based on the uncertainty of demand and the risk attitude of decision makers,this paper studies the closed-loop supply chain network.The specific main work can be divided into three parts:The first part builds a competitive two-layer mixed integer nonlinear model under the condition of risk neutrality regardless of risk attitude,with the upper closed-loop supply chain as the leader and the lower supply chain as the follower.The upper model is a dual objective function that considers both profit maximization and carbon dioxide emission minimization,and the lower model is a single-layer function that maximizes profit.In the objective function,the method of fuzzy chance-constrained programming is used to solve the problem of uncertain demand in the model,and the model is deduced by using fuzzy interval,triangular fuzzy number and other fuzzy mathematics related theories to facilitate subsequent solutions.The second part,considering the risk attitude of supply chain decision makers,builds a risk measurement model based on the hybrid CVaR criterion,and also considers demand uncertainty,and discusses the equilibrium decision-making problem of closed-loop supply chain networks.After the final model is determined,in order to facilitate the subsequent coding and solution in Python,the model is processed using the K-K-T condition and ε-constraint method,and finally converted into a single-layer single-objective model.In the third part,set appropriate numerical values for example analysis,and use the global optimization algorithm to solve the mixed integer nonlinear model.The results show that,first of all,in a risk-neutral situation,(1)excessively tight or loose supervision of carbon dioxide emissions in its own supply chain may lead to a negative impact on the total profit of the supply chain.It is recommended to bring in the relevant data of the supply chain in previous years for calculation Own company’s CO2 emission ratio.(2)Compared with no competition,closed-loop supply chains are more profitable in a competitive environment.(3)With the increase of the competitor’s price coefficient,the demand of the follower decreases,and the demand of the leader gradually increases.Taking risk attitude into consideration,(1)in the actual design and management of closed-loop supply chain network,if it is found that the systemic risk level of the supply chain is too high,the risk management and control costs should be provided in time to avoid excessive losses.(2)When the risk is low,part of the investment in risk management and control can be converted to projects with more significant profits.(3)The risk preference of upper-level leaders in closed-loop supply chain 1 has little effect on the total profit following supply chain 2.With the continuous development of green supply chains and reverse supply chains,considering the uncertainty of demand makes the model closer to practice,and research on risk attitudes can be targeted for risk control,which is important for improving the economic and environmental performance of closed-loop supply chains.significance.From the perspective of demand uncertainty and decision makers having different risk attitudes,this paper builds a two-layer model,and draws a balanced strategy for the overall closed-loop supply chain network in terms of profit improvement and risk control,which is the perfect solution for the closedloop supply chain network design system.Provide some reference.