Analysis Of The Impact Of "Dual Carbon" Goals On The Credit Spread Of Green Bonds

With a series of global environmental issues becoming increasingly serious,countries around the world are beginning to pay more attention to environmental protection and ecological construction while developing their economies.At the Central Economic Work Conference held from December 16 to 18,2020,the " carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals" was identified as an important content of the 14th Five-Year Plan.The finance is one of the main drivers of China’s green and low-carbon transformation.During the process,financing is provided for capital needs with large scale,long borrowing periods,and high uncertainty,and asset prices are redefined.As an important component of the green financial system,green bonds not only meet the financing needs of issuers for green projects,but also enrich the investment choices of investors,especially those with green preferences.Studying green bonds credit spread in China plays an important role in promoting the development of the domestic green bond market.To explore the impact of the "dual carbon" target on the credit spread of green bonds,this paper conducts research from theoretical and empirical perspectives.First,sorting out relevant theories of credit spreads and bond pricing.Secondly,starting from the green premium theory,investor attention theory,environmental "deterrent effect" theory and enterprise innovation theory,it incorporates the "dual carbon" target policy into the green asset pricing model and proposes the main research assumptions.Set the "dual carbon" target on December 18,2020 as one of the eight major tasks of 2021 and an important content of the 14th Five-Year Plan as policy time,take green bonds as the main research object,by PSM-DID model studying the impact of the "dual carbon" policy on the credit spread of green bonds.On this basis,this paper explores the impact on enterprises of different sizes and the mechanism of the "dual carbon"policy,and analyzes the intermediary role of enterprise innovation.Next,further analyze the impact of the "dual carbon"policy on the credit spread of brown bonds.Finally,a robust empirical result is obtained.Through theoretical analysis and empirical research,this paper draws the following conclusions:First,after the policy,the credit spread of green bonds has significantly decreased.Secondly,the policy goal affects the credit spread of green bonds by improving innovation of issuers.Thirdly,compared to large enterprises,the policy has a more significant effect on reducing the credit spread of green bonds of small and medium-sized enterprises.Fourth,the policy has an adverse effect on brown bonds,which will significantly increase the credit spread of brown bonds.Finally,it is the conclusion of this article and suggestions for the future development of green bonds.First,guide enterprises to actively participate in the green bond market.Second,actively cultivate investors’ green investment philosophy,third,implement diversified incentive policies for green bonds,and fourth,optimize the issuance structure of green bonds.Fifth,strengthen research and innovation,and stimulate the driving force of the "dual carbon" goal to promote high-quality development.