| Cotton is one of the most important crops in the world and has a leading impact on the textile industry.As the world’s largest exporter of textile and clothing products,China not only exports a large number of cotton manufactured products,but also imports a large number of cotton raw materials and cotton textile semi-finished products every year.With the accelerating transformation and upgrading of China’s textile and garment industry,sufficient raw cotton supply has become a key factor for China’s textile industry to successfully explore the international market.Therefore,studying the current situation of China’s cotton import trade and analyzing the trade potential between China and its cotton trading partner countries are of great practical significance for accurately grasping the development trend of China’s cotton import trade,expanding trading partners and improving the security of China’s cotton trade.Firstly,the paper combs the relevant literature in the field of cotton trade at home and abroad,including the trade pattern of the world and China’s cotton market,trade efficiency and trade potential,and the efficiency and potential of cotton import trade;Secondly,it analyzes the development of the world cotton production and trade pattern,and comprehensively summarizes the current situation of China’s cotton production,trade scale and cotton price trend.This paper focuses on the analysis of China’s cotton import scale,import price,the world’s largest cotton exporter,the main source countries of China’s imported cotton,and China’s dependence on the international cotton market;Thirdly,a stochastic frontier gravity model is constructed to calculate the import potential of China’s top ten cotton import source countries.By using OLS mixed estimation,random effect,time invariant and time-varying model methods,this paper empirically studies the trade efficiency and trade potential between China and the top 10 cotton importing source countries,and divides China’s trade efficiency with cotton importing source countries into three echelons: the first echelon(low trade efficiency);The second echelon(moderate trade efficiency);Third,the trade efficiency is higher.Finally,by comparing the import potential of China’s top 10 major cotton source countries in 2016 and 2019,it is concluded that the country with the fastest growth rate of cotton trade with China can tap the expandable trade potential of other countries.The study found that: first,the amount and quantity of cotton imported by China from overseas are increasing year by year,and the main source countries of cotton imports are highly concentrated.China’s dependence on the international market of Australian and Indian cotton is gradually weakening,and its dependence on Brazilian cotton is deepening;Second,the GDP of cotton source countries,per capita disposable income,signing bilateral trade agreements and other variables have a positive effect on the quantity of cotton imported by China.China’s import potential to Mali,Uzbekistan and Cameroon is basically saturated,while it still has potential to Australia,Brazil and Mexico.Third,China has the largest expandable potential for cotton imports from Australia,followed by Brazil and Mexico,and there is still a large room for growth,while the expandable trade potential for the United States,India,Uzbekistan,Cameroon and other countries shows a downward trend;The paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions: China should actively find an alternative market for cotton,realize the diversified development of cotton import source countries,and tap the cooperation potential with other countries in the field of cotton and related industrial chains.We should consolidate the traditional import source countries and improve the self-sufficiency rate of cotton.Improve the cotton futures market and improve the voice of pricing.Accelerate the transformation and upgrading of cotton in Xinjiang and realize the integration of industrial chain. |
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