| High-quality development is the primary task of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way,and in order to achieve high-quality development,it is necessary to implement the new development concept and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern in which domestic and international dual circulation mainly promote each other.Maintaining regional financial stability and achieving sustained and healthy financial development is a necessary prerequisite for achieving high-quality regional economic development and an important way to solve the problem of unbalanced and insufficient high-quality economic development.The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized: deepen the reform of the financial system,build a modern central banking system,strengthen and improve modern financial supervision,strengthen the financial stability guarantee system,bring all kinds of financial activities into supervision in accordance with the law,and guard the bottom line of no systemic risk.In recent years,with the continuous occurrence of various financial risk events,financial stability has become a key issue of social concern,and most of the research on financial stability is based on the national macroeconomics and the entire financial system,and the construction of the national financial stability assessment index system tends to be mature,but there are fewer financial stability assessment index systems with regional characteristics,and most of the research based on regional perspectives is concentrated in developed regions.Therefore,based on the actual economic and social development of Tibet and the requirements of financial stability in Tibet Autonomous Region,this paper constructs a mixed frequency evaluation index system for Tibet’s financial stability and analyzes the factors affecting Tibet’s financial stability,which is of great practical significance for preventing regional financial systemic risks,realizing high-quality economic development in Tibet,building a regional financial security prevention system,and promoting the sustainable and coordinated development of Tibet’s finance.Based on this,this paper focuses on the core of Tibet’s financial stability,and on the basis of combing the relevant theoretical analysis and empirical research on financial stability by domestic and foreign scholars,and starting from the actual situation of economic and social development in the Tibet Autonomous Region,this paper conducts theoretical analysis and empirical research on Tibet’s financial stability,and finally puts forward policy suggestions.The main research contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,by constructing a mixed frequency evaluation index system for Tibet’s financial stability,and using the mixed VAR model to empower various basic indicators,this paper has a relatively large impact on Tibet’s actual GDP,real estate investment growth rate,deposit-loan ratio and real estate sales price,among which the highest weight is the actual GDP of the autonomous region,which means that the comprehensive effect of the actual economic development of Tibet has the greatest impact on Tibet’s financial stability,and the actual economic operation of the autonomous region fluctuates.It will have a direct and profound impact on Tibet’s financial stability.Secondly,the Tibet Financial Stability Index from the first quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2022 was measured,and on the whole,there was no continuous financial instability in the entire range,and Tibet was in a state of financial instability in the first quarter of 2009,the third quarter of 2009 and the third quarter of 2015.Tibet was in a state of financial imbalance in the second quarter of 2006,the first quarter of 2008,the first quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2012;In other time frames,although the Tibet Financial Stability Index fluctuated to varying degrees,it was always in a state of financial substability.Second,the long-term trend of Tibet’s financial stability index is obtained through H-P filtering,and on the whole,it shows a volatile situation,and the overall trend shows the characteristics of wave decline.The long-term trend generally went through five phases: the first stage,from the first quarter of 2006 to the third quarter of 2008,and a period of rapid decline;The second phase was from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2010,a period of rapid rise;The third stage,from the third quarter of 2010 to the third quarter of 2015,continued to decline;The fourth stage: from the fourth quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2021,a gradual recovery period;From the second quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022,the long-term trend value of the Tibet Financial Stability Index showed a downward trend.And the volatility of the index can be more sensitive to reflect the impact of financial events.Thirdly,on the basis of the theoretical analysis of financial stability and regional financial stability and the combing of relevant literature,a series of relevant indicators of financial stability were screened,and finally the influencing factors of Tibet’s financial stability were analyzed mainly from the two risk dimensions of Tibet’s economic environment and government regulation and control ability,and seven influencing factors including the operation status of enterprises in the autonomous region,fixed asset investment and local government regulation and control capacity were selected,and the mixed-frequency MIDAS data model was used to analyze the influencing factors.The results show that,in addition to the above influencing factors,Tibet’s own financial stability has a significant impact on the financial stability of the autonomous region when it lags 1 and 2 times.Under the selection of the optimal model,except for the factors influencing the proportion of tertiary industry,per capita disposable income and the proportion of fiscal expenditure to GDP in the autonomous region,the lagging multiplier effects of other explanatory variables on the financial stability of the autonomous region have two ways:positive and inverse. |
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