Research On The Spatial Differences And Evolution Of The Human Development Index And Its Driving Mechanism In The Poyang Lake Basin

Promoting low-carbon and humanistic development is essential for achieving the "dual carbon" target and improving people’s quality of life.As the main battleground for the construction of the National Ecological Civilization Experimental Zone,the Poyang Lake Basin bears the important mission of low-carbon and human development.Based on the Human Development Index(HDI),this thesis constructs the Carbonembedded Human Development Index(CHDI)and measures the CHDI of the Poyang Lake Basin from 1990 to 2020.The spatial differences and evolution characteristics of CHDI in the Poyang Lake Basin are analyzed from the perspectives of "basin" and "four major regions" respectively.Finally,the driving effects and influencing factors of CHDI in the Poyang Lake Basin are revealed by applying the LMDI factor decomposition model and spatial Durbin model.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)Since 1990,human development level(CHDI)in the Poyang Lake Basin has significantly improved,with 62.8% of counties achieving a leap from low to high human development level,and the remaining counties reaching medium to high human development level.Comparing HDI with CHDI in the Poyang Lake Basin,it is known that in 2020,approximately 32% of counties in the basin have been "punished" by per capita carbon emissions in terms of human development level(CHDI).(2)From 1990 to 2020,the overall spatial differences in the human development index(CHDI)in the Poyang Lake Basin continued to decrease,and the level of spatial polarization gradually weakened.(3)From 1990 to 2020,from the perspective of "watershed" division,the spatial differences of the CHDI in the five major watersheds of the Poyang Lake Basin and within/between watersheds have continued to decrease,and the spatial differences in the human development level(CHDI)are the largest in the Poyang Lake area,followed by the Poyang Lake Basin,Ganjiang River Basin,Raohe River Basin,Xinjiang River Basin,Xiuhe River Basin,and Fuhe River Basin.Similar results were obtained using the spatial polarization index calculation.(4)From 1990 to 2020,the spatial differences in CHDI within the four regions of the Poyang Lake Basin have continued to decrease,while the spatial differences in CHDI between these regions have first decreased and then increased.Among them,the spatial difference in CHDI in Gandongbei region is the largest,and the spatial difference in CHDI in Ganxi region is the smallest.The spatial polarization level of the four regions in the Poyang Lake Basin is in the order of Gandongbei,Ganzhongnan,Ganbei,and Ganxi,which also shows similar characteristics.(5)According to the decomposition of driving effects,economic and technological effects are positive effects that promote the improvement of human development index(CHDI)in the Poyang Lake region,while environmental and social effects are negative effects that hinder the improvement of CHDI.The combination of these four effects promotes the increase of CHDI in the Poyang Lake region,but their effects gradually weaken over time.(6)From the perspective of regional development,economic growth,urbanization,and industrialization can promote the improvement of human development level(CHDI)in the Poyang Lake Basin,while per capita public financial expenditure and PM2.5 have not yet had a significant impact on the human development level(CHDI)in the Poyang Lake Basin.The spatial spillover effects of industrialization,urbanization,and per capita public financial expenditure are positive,while the effects of economic growth and PM2.5 are negative.By promoting low-carbon and high-quality economic development and optimizing government public financial expenditure,the human development level(CHDI)in the Poyang Lake Basin can be improved.Differential strategies can also be implemented to promote balanced development of human development level(CHDI)in the Poyang Lake Basin.