Research On The Impact Of Monetary Policy Rule Selection On China’s Economic Growth Under The Background Of "Dual Carbon" Goal

In the report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed that achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality is an inherent requirement for promoting high-quality development,and is also the only way to achieve the sustainable development of the Chinese nation,and is a major strategic decision made by the Party Central Committee based on the overall situation at home and abroad.The realization of the "dual carbon" goal is a profound social change,not only an environmental issue,but also an economic issue,how to balance the relationship between economic development and emission reduction,and how to achieve carbon neutrality and green development goals at the minimum cost is an important content of current economic research.Monetary policy is one of the important means of national macro-control,monetary policy rules have an optimal guiding role for the rapid and stable development of the macroeconomy,in the context of the "dual carbon" goal,it is of great significance to find monetary policy rules that take into account macroeconomic development and carbon emission reduction.However,most of the existing research on monetary policy rules ignores the background of the "dual carbon" goal,so this paper innovatively puts carbon tax policy and monetary policy rules in the same framework analysis based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)model.Firstly,a four-sector DSGE model including households,enterprises,government environmental departments and central banks is constructed,and then the model parameters are assigned through calibration and Bayesian estimation,and the degree of fitting between different monetary policy rules and China’s actual economic situation is compared,and then output,consumption,carbon emissions and other indicators are selected,and the impulse response diagram of these indicators is analyzed when facing the impact of production technology,environmental protection technology and carbon tax rate under different monetary policy rules.Comparing the impact of different monetary policy rules on macroeconomic operation provides a useful reference for China to formulate monetary policy rules that take into account economic growth and environmental protection in the process of promoting the realization of the "dual carbon" goal.The results show that:(1)No matter what monetary policy rules are used,the progress of production technology will promote economic growth on the one hand,but on the other hand,it will produce more carbon emissions,which cannot balance economic development and environmental protection.(2)The progress of environmental protection technology has two effects: promoting economic growth and carbon emission reduction,but the effect focus is different under different monetary policy rules,and the effect of promoting economic growth under quantitative monetary policy rules is more obvious,and the effect of promoting carbon emission reduction under hybrid monetary policy rules is more obvious.(3)The introduction of carbon tax can effectively reduce carbon emissions but will inhibit economic growth,and the effect of carbon emission reduction is more obvious under quantitative monetary policy rules,and the effect of inhibiting economic growth under hybrid monetary policy rules is more obvious.