The Statistical Research Of Economic Growth Paths Under Carbon Emission Constraints In China

Economic growth is an eternal theme and continued hot in economics, especially, the debate on the driving force of economic growth. Western mainstream economic growth theory has varied from "Capital determinism " to " technology determinism’ to " institution determinism", which could explain most of the phenomenons of economic growth. But there still are some flaws in the mainstream economic growth theory, First, it is hard to explain how economic growth occurs and why economic growth could accelerate or deceleration. Second, it failure to establish a necessary tie between long-term trends and short-term fluctuations.Third, as the leader of the country, the government’s role in the long-term economic growth was underestimated, even ignored.After the reform and opening up, China’s economic growth miracle attracted wide attention of scholars, while capital accumulation,labor force and technology advance,which are the main factors of the output in the production function, are not adequate to explain the miracle of China’s economic growth.We may seem economic growth as motion, acceleration or deceleration means the state of motion was changed, and a net external force was applied to it. Among these elements of production, labor force, which is consist of all kinds of people, may be the only factor making a foce. labor force was initially decribed as the quantity of workers, then taken quality of workers into consideration in human resources model which raised by Lucas,but mainstream economic growth theory still ignored the initiative and great creativity of the general public. In another word, labor force was only considered their ability, while their wish and how hard they will work was ignored in mainstream economic growth theory. that is why we introduced the attraction of economic target model adding in mainstream economic growth theory to explain China’s economic growth miracle.One of the problems companing with rapid economic development in China is the booming of total carbon emission, which is considered the main cause of the global warming issues.With the community’s attention on climate changing,carbon emission has become one of the most important factors that curbed economic growth.Chinese government has made a commitment on carbon emission reduction in 2009, taken the commitment as a constraint, this thesis explored the paths of China’s economic growth in the future.Before the path exploration,we made a comprehensive analysis the current situation of China’s carbon emissions, the relationship between carbon emission and economic development.Based on the mainstream economic growth theory, economic theory of climate change and the attraction of economic target model,this thesis has made a constrained economic growth model to solve the optimal path of China’s economic growth, the path of investment in research, the path of carbon emission intensity and the path of total carbon emission in the utility maximization process. combined with the main conclusions and the reality of China we put forward specific policy proposals.