Research On The Impact Of China’s Key Industrial Policies On Industrial Structure Upgrading

Since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China,with the continuous economic development and improvement of market mechanisms,the upgrading of China’s industrial structure has undergone a process of rationalization,advancement,coordination,and ecologicalization.The central government explicitly stated in the "Fifteen-Year Plan" that promoting the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure and building a modern industrial system are among the goals of economic structural adjustment.In the current context of intensified internal and external conflicts,industrial structure upgrading requires the "invisible hand" of market mechanisms to determine winners and losers,while also needing the "visible hand" of the government for guidance and support.Therefore,key industrial policies and their impact on industrial structure upgrading,the underlying mechanisms at play,and whether there are heterogeneity effects in the effectiveness of key industrial policies in different regions are pressing questions that need to be addressed in the new development stage of promoting industrial chain upgrading and building a modern industrial system.In light of this,this paper first systematically reviews the Five-Year Plans formulated by the central government from the "First Five-Year Plan" to the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" and the plans developed by thirty local governments from the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" to the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan." It extracts and categorizes the key industrial policy information based on the "National Economic Industry Classification(GB/T4754-2017)" into the primary,secondary,and tertiary industries.The frequency of mentions of each industry in the plans is calculated to gauge the level of attention given by the central and local governments to the development of the three industries.Next,based on analyzing the impact mechanisms of key industrial policies on industrial structure upgrading,this paper employs time series regression models using relevant data from 1991 to 2020 to examine the extent to which central key industrial policies influence industrial structure upgrading.Additionally,fixed-effects models are constructed using data from 2000 to 2020 to examine the impact of local key industrial policies on industrial structure upgrading.Lastly,the moderating effect of marketization level on the relationship between key industrial policies and industrial structure upgrading is examined.The results indicate that the total number of central key industrial policies has a significant promoting effect on industrial structure upgrading,but the mechanisms differ among different industrial policies.Under the guidance of the central five-year plans,the total number of local key industrial policies has a significant promoting effect on industrial structure upgrading,with a stronger targeting and more pronounced effects.Key industrial policies have regional heterogeneity effects on industrial structure upgrading,and marketization level has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between key industrial policies and industrial structure upgrading.Based on these research findings,this paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations.