Regional Logistics And Economic System Based On System Dynamics Research On Coupled And Coordinated Development

Under the guidance of the macro policy of developing modern logistics in the national 14 th Five-Year Plan,China’s logistics industry is rapidly transforming towards digitalization and informatization,and has realized technology-driven quality improvement and efficiency increase,showing a new coupling with the regional economy.The continuous improvement of the modern logistics system,the continuous sound logistics service network and the continuous strengthening of the coordinated high-quality development of the regional economy have laid a solid foundation for the comprehensive realization of socialist modernization.Based on this background,this paper discusses the theory and practice of the relationship between regional logistics and regional economic coupling and coordinated development.Based on data research and analysis of relevant literature,this paper combines the relevant theories of regional logistics,the relevant theories of regional economy,the theory of coupled and coordinated development and the theory of system dynamics simulation,etc.This paper adopts both qualitative and quantitative research approaches.In order to assess the coupled and coordinated development of regional logistics and regional economy,a scientific and reasonable evaluation index system is developed,and the coupled and coordinated development model is used to conduct an empirical study on the coupled and coordinated development of regional logistics and economy.The causal relationship between regional logistics and regional economic indicators is analysed,and a system dynamics model reflecting the interaction between regional logistics and regional economy is established.Main work of this paper:Firstly,a coupled and coordinated development model is constructed.A scientific and reasonable evaluation system of indicators for the coupled and coordinated development of regional logistics and regional economic systems has been constructed,and 36 most representative indicators have been selected to explain the standardization of indicators,the weighting of indicators,the coupling degree model and the calculation method of the coupling coordination degree model.The criteria for evaluating the degree of coupling between regional logistics and regional economic systems are divided into four stages to measure the degree of coupling between the two systems;the evaluation criteria for coupling and synergistic dispatch of the two systems are divided into ten stages to measure the degree of coupling and coordination between the two systems.Secondly,a system dynamics model is constructed.From the system dynamics theory,the causal relationship between the elements of regional logistics and regional economy indicators is analyzed.The system boundary is defined,a feedback diagram of the causal relationship between the regional logistics and regional economic system is constructed,and based on this,the nature of each relevant variable is analyzed and a system dynamics flow diagram is constructed.On the basis of determining the parameter estimates and variable equations of the model,the model is tested for stability,historicity and sensitivity to ensure the validity of the model construction.Thirdly,example analysis.This paper chooses Shanxi Province as an example to study,firstly,analyses the current situation of regional logistics and regional economic development in Shanxi Province.Secondly,the level of coupled and coordinated development of regional logistics and regional economy in Shanxi Province from 2011 to2021 is assessed;Thirdly,the system dynamics model is used to forecast data on coupled coordination indicators in Shanxi Province during the period 2022-2030 and to predict the development trend of coupled coordination between regional logistics and regional economy in Shanxi Province during the period 2022-2030.Fourthly,the Vensim PLE software is used to simulate the significant influencing factors of the model for policy analysis and provide policy recommendations to promote the coordinated development of regional logistics and regional economy in Shanxi Province.The main conclusions drawn in this article:Firstly,the comprehensive development of regional logistics and regional economic systems in Shanxi Province has been improving year by year,but on the whole,the development of both is lagging behind,and the coupled and coordinated development of the two systems has gradually developed from a moderately dysfunctional state to a barely coordinated state,and in recent years,the coupled and coordinated development of the two systems has gradually slowed down.Secondly,by establishing a system dynamics model,the values of the coupling and coordination development indicators were simulated and predicted.The predicted results show that the coupling and coordination between regional logistics and regional economy in Shanxi Province will continue to be good during 2022-2030,from barely coordinated in2021 to achieving quality coordination in 2030,indicating that the coupling and coordination between regional logistics and regional economy in Shanxi Province will continue to improve,thus generating a good interactive effect.Thirdly,using Vensim PLE software,the simulation policy simulation analysis is conducted from three aspects: investment in regional logistics infrastructure,strengthening training of logistics professionals,and optimizing energy consumption efforts.Logistics infrastructure investment increased by 20%,30% and 50% respectively;logistics professional training investment increased by 5%,10% and 15% respectively,all of which will increase the regional GDP and the value added of regional logistics industry to different degrees.And energy consumption shows a decreasing trend in comparison.Based on this,recommendations for the coupled and coordinated development of regional logistics and regional economy in Shanxi Province are proposed in four aspects:strengthening the construction of regional logistics infrastructure,cultivating logistics professionals and improving the training system for logistics talents,accelerating the construction of green logistics,improving the logistics system and optimizing the policy environment of the logistics industry.