Research On The Trade Effects Of Import Tariff Control On Bulk Agricult-ural Products

Both China and the United States are big importers and exporters of agricultural products and play an important role in the global agricultural trade.The Chinese market is an important market for US agricultural exports.In 2017,China became the largest export destination for US agricultural products,surpassing Canada for the first time.Agricultural trade plays a pivotal role in bilateral economic and trade cooperation.Since 2016,the US government has repeatedly imposed tariffs on Chinese imports,in the name of intellectual property protection,trade balance and national security.In response to the US trade offensive,China has responded with a "reciprocal counterattack" by imposing tariffs on US exports to China.Since 2018,the terms of trade of US agricultural products imported by China,including soybeans,have changed significantly due to the control policies on import tariffs on agricultural products.So,will the imposition of tariffs on the United States reduce the import of China’s bulk agricultural products? Below the rigid state of demand for agricultural products,how does the trade geography of China’s agricultural imports change,can it affect domestic consumer price? Therefore,it is of great theoretical value and meaningful to study the trade effects of tariff control on bulk agricultural products.Based on tariff theory,combined with comparative research and empirical research methods,this paper analyzes the geographical effects and tariff price passthrough effects of tariff control policy on soybean trade.Firstly,analyzes the current situation of soybean trade in the world,and makes theoretical elaboration from two aspects of trade geography structure and price transmission,which lays the foundation for comparative analysis and empirical analysis.Secondly,draws lessons from international trade theories such as trade diversion,trading power and tariff elasticity,using the soybean import and export trade data of UNCOMTRADE,EPS,WTO,WORLD BANK,USDA ERS,Wind database and other platforms,the price data related to the soybean industry are analyzed statistically,the trade geographic concentration index is calculated and the changes in terms of trade are compared.It is found that the trade of bulk agricultural products represented by soybeans has changed from "Sino-US soybean trade" to "Sino-Pakistan soybean trade".Tariff control policy has changed the geographical structure of China’s soybean import trade.Chinese soybean importers have turned to importing soybeans from countries such as Brazil and Canada,thus increasing the China’s import geographical concentration of Soybean.Then,a model including domestic and foreign prices is constructed to analyze the transmission rate of soybean import tariff to domestic soybean oil consumer price,and empirical test whether the trade geographical structure effects and price passthrough effects of import tariff policy are significant before and after the imposition of counter tariff? It is found that the tariff control policy has little effect on Chinese consumer prices and the tariffs are mainly absorbed by American exporters.Finally,based on the above findings,some policy suggestions are put forward to enhance the effect of China’s tariff countermeasures from the aspects of optimizing the tariff level,adjusting the tariff structure and supporting other countermeasures.