Analysis On The Influence Mechanism Of Price In Spot Market Of Sino-US Agricultural Products

Agriculture is an important basic industry of the national economy.As a large population and large demand for food,agriculture has an important strategic position in China’s economy.In particular,the government attaches great importance to the three rural issues,crop production and the market has gradually become the most important concern for the development of national economy.However,due to the existence of long production cycle,the supply adjustment lags behind the market demand,the dependence on the high degree of natural factors,its production is not only facing greater market risk,but also facing irresistible natural risks.In the context of improving farmers’ income,building new countryside and developing new agriculture,China attaches more importance to the development of agriculture.The price of agricultural products is small to affect the living conditions of farmers,large influential factors affecting the people’s livelihood.The price of agricultural products on the international market is basically determined by the mechanism of agricultural futures market.Chicago’s agricultural futures market is the world’s first and most current agricultural futures market,has long been on the global market price of agricultural products have a high degree of control,the world’s agricultural commodity spot prices are under a certain mechanism by the Chicago agricultural futures market price Constraints and impact.In this context,this paper selected representative soybean and corn as import / export crops,choose China’s Dalian Futures Exchange(DCE)January 2010 to 2016 July two crop / spot closing price date data And the Chicago Board of Trade(CBOT)in January 2010 to July 2016 two crop futures closing price of the daily data,from the financial market and agricultural products market two angles to the different effects of the spot between the main line,the comprehensive use of VAR,Variance analysis,impulse response function and GARCH family model(including: DCC-GARCH model,EGARCH model)and other methods,the impact of Sino-US / spot price mechanism and its dynamic linkage and other issues in-depth discussion and analysis The The main research contents include:(1)to carry out the US agricultural futures market on China’s agricultural futures market direct impact mechanism analysis.In this paper,VAR model,variance analysis and impulse response function are used to study the mutual influence of Sino-US agricultural futures market.The size,mode and time of impact control are described in detail.The DCC-GARCH model is used to describe the Sino-Agricultural commodity futures price volatility of the dynamic correlation,from the average level and the dynamic spillover effect on the Sino-US agricultural futures market price of the direct impact of the mechanism of the relevant analysis.(2)to carry out the US agricultural futures market on China’s agricultural products,the indirect impact of the spot market analysis mechanism.Combined with the existing theory,this paper argues that the US agricultural futures market has a certain impact on the spotmarket price of agricultural products in China,and there may be asymmetric effects.Therefore,this paper uses EGARCH model to analyze the impact of US agricultural futures market price on the spot price of agricultural products in China.(3)to explore the import and export of agricultural products / spot prices by the US agricultural futures price differences.From the perspective of import and export crops,this paper analyzes the impact of the US futures market on China’s spot and spot market,compares the spot price of China’s import and export of agricultural products by the US agricultural futures market is different,if there are differences in the analysis of the differences may exist Reason and give some reasonable advice.