Analysis Of The Impact Of Policy Changes On The Operation Of Coal To Oil Project A

In 2021,China’s crude oil import reached 513 million tons,and its external dependence was 72%,far exceeding the warning line of 60%.Influenced by geopolitical factors such as Sino US trade friction and Russia Ukraine conflict,the international situation has been changeable in recent years.Under the complex and changeable international situation,the development of diversified oil supply system is particularly important for China to ensure energy security.Coal to liquid has the characteristics of low sulfur,low nitrogen,low aromatics and high cetane number.It is a high-quality clean fuel.At present,China has broken through and mastered the core technology of coal to liquid refining,and the process safety is independently available,which can help to promote the diversification of China’s oil supply system and ensure energy security.However,due to the large amount of early-stage investment,long construction period and vulnerable to the influence of policies,the existing coal to oil industrialization demonstration projects in China generally have the problems of high cost,low income and poor economy.Therefore,studying how policy changes will affect the operation of coal to oil projects can help investors prevent and resolve project operation risks in time,so as to ensure the safety of oil supply in China.This paper studies the impact of policy changes on the operation of a coal to liquid project by using text quantitative analysis method and profit and loss balance analysis method.Firstly,sort out the existing coal to oil policy system to form the impact mechanism of the policy on the operation of coal to oil projects.Secondly,build the break even analysis model for coal to liquid a project,and finally calculate the impact of policy changes on the operation of coal to liquid a project.It is found that:(1)the changes of policies related to product price and output have the most significant impact on the operation and economy of project A.secondly,the policies related to promoting technology development have a strong impact on the operation of project a by reducing production costs and increasing output;(2)Changes in policies related to upstream coal supply and coal pricing mechanism can also have a certain impact on the operation of project a by changing the cost of production raw materials;The impact of changes in tax policies on infrastructure construction and operation is the second.(3)Although the changes of financial support,capital investment and talent training policies have little impact on the economy of project a,from a strategic perspective,the support of this type of policies is of far-reaching significance.Based on the above analysis results,this paper provides some suggestions for policy-making to promote the healthy development of coal to oil project.The research results of this paper will help to improve the operation efficiency of a coal to liquid project,enhance the profitability of the project,reduce the operation risk of the project,and also contribute to the stable operation and high-quality development of similar projects.