Risk Analysis Of Closed Real Estate Investment Trust In Hua’an Zhangjiang Industrial Park

The Hua’an Zhangjiang Industrial Park Closed Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund(hereinafter referred to as Zhangjiang REIT)is one of the first four industrial park REITs listed in China.The industrial park is located in the "Yangtze River Delta Regional Integration Development Plan Outline" National Major Strategic Area,China(Shanghai)Pilot Free Trade Zone,and National High tech Park Shanghai Zhangjiang Science City,and is located in the core area of Shanghai,Conducting risk analysis on it has strong representativeness.Since its launch and operation for over 2 years,the product has attracted market attention,with institutional offline placement exceeding 7 times;The upper limit of fundraising for public investors is 200 million,with a daily subscription amount exceeding 4 billion and a placement ratio below 5%.Therefore,conducting risk research on them is highly universal;The secondary market of Zhangjiang REIT was launched at a price of 3.200 yuan on June 21,2021,and opened at 3.200 yuan on September 6,2023.During this period,the highest price rose to 4.545 yuan and the lowest price fell to 3.177 yuan.In just two years,the volatility has reached as high as 25%,and the research on its risk has strong practicality.Through analysis,it was found that the core risk of Zhangjiang REIT lies in the rental income and vacancy rate of its underlying assets(Zhangjiang Everbright Park).The changes in these two key factors will greatly affect the stability of product operation and the agreed dividend income in the contract.Therefore,this article attempts to use Monte Carlo simulation to quantitatively analyze rental income and vacancy rate,and find the changes in their risk exposure after the two factors change.In addition to the aforementioned risks,Zhangjiang REIT also faces common risks such as "equity+debt",moral hazard for product managers,and operational risk for products.After introducing the basic situation of this article,the first chapter briefly describes the current situation of infrastructure securities investment funds;Chapter 2 focuses on Zhangjiang REIT itself,conducting risk analysis on the underlying assets of Zhangjiang REIT,and identifying key influencing factors;Chapter 3 conducts Monte Carlo simulation on key influencing factors to quantitatively analyze the risk of changes in key factors;In Chapter 4,analyze the inherent risks of Zhangjiang REIT products;Finally,in Chapter 5,the above risk analysis is summarized and summarized,proposing the establishment of an effective regulatory system,regular public disclosure of product operations,and improvement of the operational capabilities of the management team.It is a favorable guarantee for the stable and healthy development of REIT in the industrial park.