Study On The Impact Of "Belt And Road" Initiative On The Agricultural Planting Structure Of Provinces And Cities Along The Belt And Road In China

This paper is conducted in the context of the "Belt and Road" initiative and the implementation of the National Food Security Strategy of "focusing on me,based on China,ensuring production capacity,moderate import,science and technology support".This paper focuses on the impact of the "Belt and Road" initiative on the agricultural planting structure of the provinces and cities along the belt and its mechanism."One Belt And One Road" initiative provides unprecedented development opportunities for China’s provinces and cities along the Belt and Road,and the opening degree of China’s agriculture to the outside world has also stepped up to a new level.On the one hand,the import and export trade of agricultural products has increased steadily,on the other hand,the production structure of domestic planting industry is increasingly affected by the international market.Therefore,to study the path of adjustment of the agricultural planting structure of the provinces and cities along the route under the "Belt and Road" initiative,grasp the policy opportunities for the provinces and cities along the route,and actively participate in International Agricultural Industrial Division of Labor and competition,it is of great practical significance to optimize and upgrade the agricultural industrial structure.In this paper,the agricultural planting structure of China is taken as the research object,and the panel data of agricultural planting structure and agricultural products import and export trade volume of Chinese provinces from 2008 to 2019 are used to make an empirical analysis.This paper takes the agricultural planting structure of provinces and cities along the routes as the explained variable,puts forward the corresponding research hypothesis on the basis of theoretical analysis,constructs the influence path model of the "One Belt And One Road" initiative on the agricultural planting structure by using the dual difference method,and collects the sample data for empirical analysis.Firstly,the current situation of China’s agricultural planting structure and the current situation of the import and export trade of agricultural products are analyzed through descriptive statistics.Secondly,the paper divides Chinese provinces into experimental group and control group according to whether they are One Belt And One Road along the line or not,and uses STATA to conduct differential model analysis to test the hypothesis proposed above.In this paper,parallel trend hypothesis test and counterfactual test are used to test the reliability of the model and enhance the credibility of the research.Then,through the analysis of Regional Heterogeneity,we empirically test the influence of "Belt and Road" on the planting structure of different regions in China.At the same time,the mediating effect model was used to analyze the influence mechanism of "One Belt And One Road" on the agricultural planting structure of provinces and cities along the routes.Finally,the empirical research results of this paper are summarized,and corresponding suggestions are put forward based on the empirical research conclusions and the actual situation of China’s agricultural planting structure.The study found:(1)The promotion of the "Belt and Road" initiative has a significant negative impact on the grain crop planting structure of the provinces and cities along the route,but the impact on the Cash crop planting structure is not significant.(2)Tracking the impact of the "Belt and Road" initiative on the agricultural planting structure of the provinces and cities along the belt and road,we can find that with the steady progress of the "Belt and Road" initiative,its negative impact on the grain crop planting structure of the provinces and cities along the belt and road has increased year by year.(3)Dividing the provinces and cities along the route into the east,the middle and the West,we can find that the "Belt and Road" initiative mainly affects the grain crop production structure of the provinces and cities along the route by affecting the grain crop production of the eastern and western provinces and regions.(4)The "Belt and Road" initiative has an impact on the grain crop planting structure of the provinces and cities along the belt and road by increasing the volume of agricultural import and export trade.The import of agricultural products reflects the "intermediary effect",that is,the "Belt and Road" initiative,which increases the import of agricultural products,which has a negative impact on the planting structure of food crops.Agricultural Export Trade reflects the "masking effect",that is,control of agricultural exports will significantly deepen the "Belt and Road" initiative on the grain cultivation structure of the provinces and cities along the negative impact.The article then makes the following suggestions:(1)The eastern and western provinces and cities should not only expand the opening,but also guard against the trend of "non-grain".(2)Coordinate the import and export of agricultural products and make good use of macro-control and market mechanisms.(3)Constructing a new pattern of double-cycle development and making good use of international and domestic markets.(4)The provinces and cities along the belt and road should seize the opportunity to promote the healthy development of "Belt and Road".