Research On Coupling Coordination Of China’s Grain Production And Consumption Ability

The structural matching of grain production and consumption has become one of the main contradictions in China’s food security.In recent years,China’s grain production has achieved successive years of increase,successive bumper harvests,grain yields have increased significantly,per capita grain occupancy is higher than 470 kg,far exceeding the international food security line of 400 kg / person,although China’s food security situation has been improved,but with the economic development and people’s income level improvement,residents’ consumption structure upgraded,the demand for food conversion products and high-quality agricultural products remains high,food consumption has shifted from living consumption to brand consumption;However,China’s grain production has not undergone essential changes in terms of production methods and varieties,and the mismatch between food supply capacity and level and expanding and upgrading consumer demand has led to the incomplete release of demand and consumption potential,and China’s food problem has changed from a problem of insufficient total supply to a structural problem of supply and demand.Therefore,how to alleviate the mismatch between food supply and demand structure to maintain China’s food security has become a new focus of academic attention.This paper first uses the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2003 to 2020 to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for food production and consumption capacity,and uses the global principal component analysis method to measure the comprehensive level of food production and consumption capacity in each region,and the results show that from 2003 to 2020,the comprehensive index of food production and consumption capacity showed an overall upward trend,and the grain production capacity showed a spatial distribution of high north and low south,east high and low west,and "high yield areas" and "high production areas" of grain production Gradually moved north and the distribution was scattered;However,the main grain sales areas are concentrated in the eastern coastal areas with high industrialization and urbanization,and the spatial distribution of the main grain producing areas and the main sales areas does not match.Secondly,the coupling coordination model is used to analyze the coupling and coordination relationship between grain production and consumption capacity in China and other provinces and cities: on the whole,the coupling coordination degree of food production and consumption in China shows an upward trend,and the coupling coordination degree of different provinces is quite different.Combined with the coupling coordination type division,most provinces are in type IV.and type V.,and only seven provinces such as Shandong and Henan have entered the coordination stage.Thirdly,the PVAR model and impulse response function are used to empirically test the dynamic relationship between food production capacity and consumption capacity,and from the perspective of interaction,the influence of the two systems on themselves is positive,and food production turns into a positive impact after inhibiting food consumption in the short term,but the driving effect of consumption capacity improvement on food production is not obvious.Finally,by constructing a fixed-effect model of the influencing factors of the coordinated development of food production and consumption capacity,this paper empirically tests it,and finds that factors such as rural human capital,urbanization,rural per capita expenditure on cultural,educational and recreational services,and food prices are all important factors affecting the coupling and coordination degree.However,the optimization of industrial institutions has a significant inhibitory effect on the coupling and coordinated development of food production and consumption.And the impact on provinces in different coupling and coordination stages is quite different.Therefore,it is necessary to put forward practical measures to promote the adjustment of food production structure and quality improvement to adapt to consumption upgrading,make full use of the resource advantages of main sales areas,and enhance the feedback and driving role of non-agricultural industries in food production to promote food production and consumption.